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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 44%, yet in-form Kudrivka provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ruh Lviv vs Kudrivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Ruh Lviv host Kudrivka at Arena Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Ruh Lviv — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ruh Lviv's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Arena Lviv this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Arena Lviv than their overall form suggests.

Across all Premier League games this season, Kudrivka have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Kudrivka have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kudrivka are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Trading Patterns

Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.

Kudrivka in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 36% versus Kudrivka 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 36% | Kudrivka 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.43 xG and Kudrivka 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.827 / defence 1.292 | Kudrivka attack 0.633 / defence 1.547. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.361. Kudrivka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.547 — this is suppressing Ruh Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Ruh Lviv games / 12 Kudrivka games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 44% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 29%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Kudrivka 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kudrivka (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 60% | Kudrivka 33%.

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