Kolos Kovalivka 1-0 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours LNZ Cherkasy (56%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Kolos Kovalivka face LNZ Cherkasy.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kolos Kovalivka and LNZ Cherkasy meet at Kolos Stadium in Premier League (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form
Kolos Kovalivka (all games): 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Kolos Kovalivka's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
LNZ Cherkasy's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 9W 0D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
LNZ Cherkasy arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to LNZ Cherkasy, who have 3 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Kolos Kovalivka 0–1 LNZ Cherkasy — a LNZ Cherkasy win.
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Kolos Kovalivka half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 42% versus LNZ Cherkasy 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 24% | LNZ Cherkasy 32%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kolos Kovalivka surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while LNZ Cherkasy have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 0.58 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.736 / defence 0.835 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.383 / defence 0.638. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.168. Kolos Kovalivka's attack rating of 0.736 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.58. LNZ Cherkasy bring a tight defence (rating 0.638, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Kolos Kovalivka's projected output down. LNZ Cherkasy have an above-average attack rating of 1.383, which lifts their away xG to 1.35. Data: built from Kolos Kovalivka's last 53 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 53.
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 16% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 56%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 6.21 | Draw 3.53 | LNZ Cherkasy 1.80. The model has a clear lean to LNZ Cherkasy (56%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Kolos Kovalivka's lower xG of 0.58 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, LNZ Cherkasy are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kolos Kovalivka's last 10 home games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kolos Kovalivka 40% (last 10 home games) | LNZ Cherkasy 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, matchday 24 | Venue: Kolos Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 16% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Kolos Kovalivka 0.58 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.736 / def 0.835 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.383 / def 0.638 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.58
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
1.35
LNZ Cherkasy xG
33%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs LNZ Cherkasy FAQs
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Kolos Stadium.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Kolos Kovalivka 1 - 0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Kolos Stadium.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Premier League fixture (matchday 24) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 16% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 56% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and LNZ Cherkasy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kolos Kovalivka's attack at 0.74x the league average against LNZ Cherkasy's defence at 0.64x — combine the two and it projects 0.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (1.38x) against Kolos Kovalivka's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from Kolos Kovalivka's last 53 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 18.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.0%), 0-2 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
16%
6.21
28%
3.53
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
0 – 2
13.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.58
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
1.93
1.35
LNZ Cherkasy xG
6.21
16%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
56%
1.79
Win to Nil
4%
23.94
31%
3.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 19.5 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs LNZ Cherkasy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.58 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.35 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kolos Kovalivka come into this having played 53 games, going 16W 22D 15L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, LNZ Cherkasy sit at 1.55 PPG from 53 outings (23W 13D 17L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Kolos Kovalivka against 1.55 for LNZ Cherkasy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kolos Kovalivka's home form reads 5W 14D 7L across their last 26 home games, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, LNZ Cherkasy have taken 1.54 points per game from their last 26 away games (11W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, LNZ Cherkasy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.13 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; LNZ Cherkasy in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka (Home) vs LNZ Cherkasy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs LNZ Cherkasy Form FAQs
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 16W 22D 15L in their last 53 games (1.32 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 23W 13D 17L in their last 53 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 1.12 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Kolos Kovalivka and LNZ Cherkasy, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Kolos Kovalivka
2
Draws
3
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs LNZ Cherkasy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and LNZ Cherkasy?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Kolos Kovalivka have won 1, LNZ Cherkasy have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Kolos Kovalivka 1-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and LNZ Cherkasy?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 42%, LNZ Cherkasy 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for Kolos Kovalivka and 35% for LNZ Cherkasy.
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy in 42%; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 50% of games; LNZ Cherkasy in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs LNZ Cherkasy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kolos Kovalivka and LNZ Cherkasy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 42% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kolos Kovalivka and LNZ Cherkasy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 35% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and LNZ Cherkasy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 42% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 73% of LNZ Cherkasy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kolos Kovalivka defy the odds to beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-0 at Kolos Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 0.58 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.35 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. LNZ Cherkasy landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.74 / defence 0.83 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.38 / defence 0.64, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 16% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 56%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Kolos Kovalivka win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 24%, LNZ Cherkasy 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kolos Kovalivka 1.32 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kolos Kovalivka win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.