🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Obolon'-Brovar at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees SK Poltava travel to Obolon Arena to take on Obolon'-Brovar. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 April 2026, 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Obolon'-Brovar's home record at Obolon Arena: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

SK Poltava — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for SK Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SK Poltava away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Obolon'-Brovar 0.60 PPG, SK Poltava 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, SK Poltava 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Obolon'-Brovar winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

SK Poltava trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 39% versus SK Poltava 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Obolon'-Brovar 52% | SK Poltava 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 1.90 xG and SK Poltava 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.928 / defence 1.234 | SK Poltava attack 0.820 / defence 1.632. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.170. SK Poltava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.632 — this is suppressing Obolon'-Brovar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Obolon'-Brovar games / 23 SK Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 54% | Draw 22% | SK Poltava 24%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | SK Poltava 4.17. Obolon'-Brovar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Obolon'-Brovar are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Obolon'-Brovar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Obolon'-Brovar 40% | SK Poltava 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights