Karpaty 3-0 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karpaty vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kryvbas KR make the trip to Stadion Ukraina to face Karpaty in Premier League (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Sunday 11 August 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
Karpaty (all games): 0W 1D 0L across their last 1 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Kryvbas KR have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Kryvbas KR have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Kryvbas KR are 0.70 PPG clear of Karpaty over their recent games (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karpaty 0.99 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karpaty attack 0.865 / defence 1.150 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.045 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.302. Data: built from Karpaty's last 1 games and Kryvbas KR's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Karpaty 24% | Draw 25% | Kryvbas KR 51%. Fair-value odds: Karpaty 4.18 | Draw 3.94 | Kryvbas KR 1.97. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kryvbas KR are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Karpaty's last 1 games and Kryvbas KR's last 10 away games) averaging 1.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's sample (Karpaty 1 games, Kryvbas KR 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karpaty vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, matchday 2 | Venue: Stadion Ukraina • Kick-off: Sunday 11 August 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karpaty 24% | Draw 25% | Kryvbas KR 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Karpaty 0.99 / Kryvbas KR 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Karpaty attack 0.865 / def 1.150 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.045 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Karpaty xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Kryvbas KR xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Karpaty vs Kryvbas KR FAQs
What time does Karpaty vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Karpaty vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Stadion Ukraina.
What was the final score in Karpaty vs Kryvbas KR?
Karpaty 3 - 0 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Karpaty vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ukraina.
What competition is Karpaty vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Karpaty vs Kryvbas KR is a Premier League fixture (matchday 2) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Karpaty vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Karpaty a 24% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karpaty vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Karpaty and Kryvbas KR will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Karpaty vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Karpaty's attack rating (0.86) and Kryvbas KR's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (1.04x) against Karpaty's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from Karpaty's last 1 games and Kryvbas KR's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
24%
4.18
25%
3.94
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Karpaty xG
Total xG
2.55
1.56
Kryvbas KR xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
5%
19.95
19%
5.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Karpaty vs Kryvbas KR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Karpaty vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Karpaty and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Karpaty and 1.56 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Karpaty vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karpaty come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five.
Kryvbas KR carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Karpaty — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karpaty are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Karpaty have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Kryvbas KR in 0%.
Defensively: Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Kryvbas KR in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karpaty
Early Season
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
Karpaty (Home) vs Kryvbas KR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Karpaty
Early Season
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Karpaty vs Kryvbas KR Form FAQs
What form are Karpaty and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Karpaty have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Karpaty or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karpaty won Karpaty 3-0 Kryvbas KR on 11 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karpaty have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Karpaty
0
Draws
2
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Karpaty vs Kryvbas KR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and Kryvbas KR?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Karpaty have won 3, Kryvbas KR have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Karpaty and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Kryvbas KR 1-4 Karpaty.
Who has won more matches between Karpaty and Kryvbas KR?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karpaty home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Karpaty vs Kryvbas KR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Karpaty and Kryvbas KR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Karpaty's recent matches and 0% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Karpaty and Kryvbas KR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Karpaty's recent games and 0% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karpaty and Kryvbas KR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 0% of Karpaty's recent matches and 100% of Kryvbas KR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Karpaty run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kryvbas KR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karpaty beat Kryvbas KR 3-0 at Stadion Ukraina, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 0.99 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.56 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Karpaty beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kryvbas KR landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.04 / defence 1.05, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Karpaty 24% | Draw 25% | Kryvbas KR 51%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Karpaty win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 0%, Kryvbas KR 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Karpaty winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Karpaty scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Kryvbas KR managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.