Obolon'-Brovar 0-4 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ruh Lviv make the trip to Obolon Arena to face Obolon'-Brovar in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 August 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Obolon'-Brovar's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Obolon'-Brovar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Obolon Arena, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ruh Lviv (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ruh Lviv haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ruh Lviv's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Obolon'-Brovar against 1.60 for Ruh Lviv. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Obolon'-Brovar lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Obolon'-Brovar half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 33% versus Ruh Lviv 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Obolon'-Brovar 33% | Ruh Lviv 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 1.07 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.970 / defence 1.061 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.024 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.244. Data: 31 Obolon'-Brovar games / 30 Ruh Lviv games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 30% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 43%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Ruh Lviv 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 30% | Ruh Lviv 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 30% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 1.07 / Ruh Lviv 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.970 / def 1.061 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.024 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Ruh Lviv xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv?
Obolon'-Brovar 0 - 4 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 30% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv?
Record (2 meetings): Obolon'-Brovar 0W | Draws 2 | Ruh Lviv 0W.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Obolon'-Brovar's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (1.02x) against Obolon'-Brovar's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
The sample (31/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
30%
3.39
27%
3.68
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.42
1.35
Ruh Lviv xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
8%
13.10
15%
6.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.35 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Obolon'-Brovar come into this having played 30 games, going 6W 12D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ruh Lviv sit at 1.63 PPG from 30 outings (12W 13D 5L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five. Ruh Lviv haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Ruh Lviv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Obolon'-Brovar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Obolon'-Brovar's home form reads 4W 6D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Ruh Lviv have taken 1.73 points per game from 15 outings (7W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.47 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ruh Lviv in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Early Season
Ruh Lviv
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 6W 12D 12L in their last 30 games (1.00 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 12W 13D 5L in their last 30 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.20 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Obolon'-Brovar have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ruh Lviv won 0-4 on 11 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Obolon'-Brovar
2
Draws
1
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv?
From 6 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 3, Ruh Lviv have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv?
Obolon'-Brovar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 27%, Ruh Lviv 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 47% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 33%; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 60% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 47% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Obolon'-Brovar have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ruh Lviv run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Obolon'-Brovar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Obolon'-Brovar 0-4 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 1.07 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.35 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ruh Lviv outscored their 1.35 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Ruh Lviv attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 31/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 30% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 43%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 33%, Ruh Lviv 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.