Shakhtar Donetsk 0-1 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya meet at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shakhtar Donetsk's overall Premier League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Shakhtar Donetsk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record at Stadion Livyi Bereh: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
Polessya (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Polessya haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Polessya's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Shakhtar Donetsk's 2.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Polessya's 1.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Shakhtar Donetsk 0W, Polessya 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 0–2 with Polessya winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Shakhtar Donetsk half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Polessya half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 47% versus Polessya 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 57% | Polessya 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.51 xG and Polessya 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.256 / defence 0.883 | Polessya attack 1.033 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.251. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 31 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 30 Polessya games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 46% | Draw 26% | Polessya 29%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Polessya 3.45. Shakhtar Donetsk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Shakhtar Donetsk 40% | Polessya 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 46% | Draw 26% | Polessya 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.51 / Polessya 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.256 / def 0.883 | Polessya attack 1.033 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Polessya xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya?
Shakhtar Donetsk 0 - 1 Polessya.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 46% chance of winning, Polessya a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya?
Record (2 meetings): Shakhtar Donetsk 0W | Draws 1 | Polessya 1W.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Polessya (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shakhtar Donetsk's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Polessya's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Polessya's attack (1.03x) against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
The sample (31/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.92
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.66
1.14
Polessya xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
6%
15.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.14 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Shakhtar Donetsk have picked up 2.37 PPG on a 22W 5D 3L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Polessya's form line: 14W 8D 8L from 30 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. Polessya haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Shakhtar Donetsk are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Polessya.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 2.47 PPG from 15 outings (12W 1D 2L).
On the road, Polessya have gone 7W 4D 4L from 15 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.30 scored and 1.00 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's scoring rate against Polessya's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Polessya in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
Polessya
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 22W 5D 3L in their last 30 games (2.37 PPG), while Polessya have gone 14W 8D 8L in their last 30 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Polessya away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.47 PPG; Polessya away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Polessya in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Polessya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya?
From 6 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 1, Polessya have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 47%, Polessya 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 47% (Polessya).
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Polessya in 47%; Polessya in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Polessya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 33% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent games and 47% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Polessya in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Polessya defy the odds to beat Shakhtar Donetsk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Shakhtar Donetsk 0-1 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.51 xG and Polessya 1.14 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shakhtar Donetsk fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.26 / defence 0.88 against Polessya attack 1.03 / defence 1.05, drawn from 31/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 46% | Draw 26% | Polessya 29%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Polessya win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 57%, Polessya 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Polessya's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.67. Form was overturned, with Polessya winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Polessya (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.