Kryvbas KR 1-0 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Kryvbas KR (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kryvbas KR face Chornomorets.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Hirnyk plays host to Kryvbas KR versus Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 3 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kryvbas KR have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Kryvbas KR haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Kryvbas KR at Stadion Hirnyk this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Hirnyk. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chornomorets (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Chornomorets haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Chornomorets have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Kryvbas KR's favour (1.70 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Kryvbas KR 3W, Chornomorets 1W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Kryvbas KR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 47% versus Chornomorets 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 53% | Chornomorets 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.49 xG and Chornomorets 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.063 / defence 0.873 | Chornomorets attack 0.910 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.169. Data: 30 Kryvbas KR games / 30 Chornomorets games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 50% | Draw 26% | Chornomorets 23%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Chornomorets 4.35. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 30% | Chornomorets 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Hirnyk • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 50% | Draw 26% | Chornomorets 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.49 / Chornomorets 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.063 / def 0.873 | Chornomorets attack 0.910 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Chornomorets xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Chornomorets kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Chornomorets kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Stadion Hirnyk.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Chornomorets?
Kryvbas KR 1 - 0 Chornomorets.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hirnyk.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Chornomorets part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 50% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Chornomorets?
Record (4 meetings): Kryvbas KR 3W | Draws 0 | Chornomorets 1W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Chornomorets in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kryvbas KR's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Chornomorets's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (0.91x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.80
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.42
0.93
Chornomorets xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
5%
18.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.93 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 17W 6D 7L from 30 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. Kryvbas KR haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Chornomorets, meanwhile, have gone 10W 2D 18L across 30 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. Chornomorets haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kryvbas KR by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chornomorets heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kryvbas KR have managed 9W 3D 3L from 15 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chornomorets's away record stands at 3W 1D 11L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chornomorets's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.27 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Pre-Season
Chornomorets
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 17W 6D 7L in their last 30 games (1.90 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 10W 2D 18L in their last 30 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Chornomorets away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 2.00 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 December 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Kryvbas KR go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Kryvbas KR
0
Draws
1
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Chornomorets?
From 6 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 5, Chornomorets have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2024, when Chornomorets 1-3 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Chornomorets?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 40%, Chornomorets 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Kryvbas KR) and 47% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Chornomorets in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 47% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 47% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Chornomorets 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Chornomorets 1-0 at Stadion Hirnyk, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.49 xG and Chornomorets 0.93 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.06 / defence 0.87 against Chornomorets attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 50% | Draw 26% | Chornomorets 23%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 53%, Chornomorets 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chornomorets's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.