Chornomorets 0-1 Zorya Luhansk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Zorya Luhansk (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chornomorets face Zorya Luhansk.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Chornomorets plays host to Chornomorets versus Zorya Luhansk in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 10 August 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Chornomorets's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chornomorets's home record at Stadion Chornomorets: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Zorya Luhansk (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zorya Luhansk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Zorya Luhansk have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Zorya Luhansk arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Zorya Luhansk hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Zorya Luhansk winning.
It is worth noting that Zorya Luhansk have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Zorya Luhansk half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 42% versus Zorya Luhansk 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 48% | Zorya Luhansk 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.25 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 1.032 / defence 1.069 | Zorya Luhansk attack 0.972 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.286. Data: 31 Chornomorets games / 31 Zorya Luhansk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 35% | Draw 26% | Zorya Luhansk 39%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Zorya Luhansk 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 50% | Zorya Luhansk 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 35% | Draw 26% | Zorya Luhansk 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Chornomorets 1.25 / Zorya Luhansk 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 1.032 / def 1.069 | Zorya Luhansk attack 0.972 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Zorya Luhansk xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk kick off?
Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk?
Chornomorets 0 - 1 Zorya Luhansk.
Where is Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk part of?
Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 35% chance of winning, Zorya Luhansk a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chornomorets and Zorya Luhansk will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Zorya Luhansk?
Record (5 meetings): Chornomorets 0W | Draws 1 | Zorya Luhansk 4W.
What form are Chornomorets and Zorya Luhansk in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chornomorets's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Zorya Luhansk's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Zorya Luhansk's attack (0.97x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
35%
2.87
26%
3.78
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.59
1.34
Zorya Luhansk xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
9%
10.93
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Zorya Luhansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.34 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 10W 2D 19L from 31 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zorya Luhansk, meanwhile, have gone 8W 11D 12L across 31 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Chornomorets against 1.13 for Zorya Luhansk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 7W 1D 7L from 15 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Chornomorets are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Zorya Luhansk's away record stands at 3W 7D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chornomorets are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Zorya Luhansk are on 1.00 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Early Season
Zorya Luhansk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Zorya Luhansk in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 10W 2D 19L in their last 31 games (1.03 PPG), while Zorya Luhansk have gone 8W 11D 12L in their last 31 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Zorya Luhansk away?
Chornomorets's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.47 PPG; Zorya Luhansk away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Zorya Luhansk go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zorya Luhansk won 0-4 on 18 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zorya Luhansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Chornomorets
1
Draws
6
Zorya Luhansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Zorya Luhansk?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 0, Zorya Luhansk have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Zorya Luhansk last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2024, when Zorya Luhansk 2-1 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Zorya Luhansk?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 40%, Zorya Luhansk 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Chornomorets) and 60% (Zorya Luhansk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Chornomorets have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Zorya Luhansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Zorya Luhansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Chornomorets's games and 73% of Zorya Luhansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Chornomorets's matches and 60% of Zorya Luhansk's.
Do Chornomorets and Zorya Luhansk tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Zorya Luhansk in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zorya Luhansk edge out Chornomorets 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zorya Luhansk beat Chornomorets 0-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.25 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.34 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 1.03 / defence 1.07 against Zorya Luhansk attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 35% | Draw 26% | Zorya Luhansk 39%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 48%, Zorya Luhansk 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 1.03 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.