Kryvbas KR 0-3 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.

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Analysis

LNZ Cherkasy make the trip to Girnyk to face Kryvbas KR in Premier League (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time.

Form

Kryvbas KR (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Kryvbas KR have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Kryvbas KR are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

LNZ Cherkasy have collected 2.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

LNZ Cherkasy's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

LNZ Cherkasy arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record in our data favours Kryvbas KR, who have won 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against LNZ Cherkasy — LNZ Cherkasy have 0 wins, with 2 draws.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Kryvbas KR 0–0 LNZ Cherkasy — a draw.

The head-to-head data gives Kryvbas KR an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading

Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 45% versus LNZ Cherkasy 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kryvbas KR 43% | LNZ Cherkasy 29%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.08 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.255 / defence 0.985 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.246 / defence 0.721. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.187. Kryvbas KR carry an above-average attack rating of 1.255 — their 1.08 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. LNZ Cherkasy bring a tight defence (rating 0.721, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Kryvbas KR's projected output down. LNZ Cherkasy have an above-average attack rating of 1.246, which lifts their away xG to 1.46. Data: built from Kryvbas KR's last 51 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 51.

Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 28% | Draw 26% | LNZ Cherkasy 46%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 3.58 | Draw 3.82 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.18. LNZ Cherkasy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), yet LNZ Cherkasy are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kryvbas KR 70% (last 10 home games) | LNZ Cherkasy 30% (last 10 away games).

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