Uthai Thani 1-1 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom meet at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 February 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Uthai Thani have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 4L across 9 games at Uthai Thani Province Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nakhon Pathom's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Pathom's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Uthai Thani, 1.20 for Nakhon Pathom — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Uthai Thani 0W, Nakhon Pathom 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Nakhon Pathom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Uthai Thani goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Nakhon Pathom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 53% and Nakhon Pathom 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 59% | Nakhon Pathom 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.46 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.752 / defence 1.182 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.975 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.262. Uthai Thani's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Uthai Thani games / 17 Nakhon Pathom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 36% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Pathom 36%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Nakhon Pathom 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 56% | Nakhon Pathom 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 36% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Pathom 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Uthai Thani 1.46 / Nakhon Pathom 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.752 / def 1.182 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.975 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Nakhon Pathom xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom?
Uthai Thani 1 - 1 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 36% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom?
Record (1 meetings): Uthai Thani 0W | Draws 0 | Nakhon Pathom 1W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Uthai Thani's attack rating (0.75) and Nakhon Pathom's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nakhon Pathom's attack (0.97x) against Uthai Thani's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
36%
2.79
28%
3.52
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.92
1.46
Nakhon Pathom xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
8%
12.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.46 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Uthai Thani have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 5W 4D 8L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Pathom's form line: 5W 5D 7L from 17 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Uthai Thani against 1.18 for Nakhon Pathom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Uthai Thani have posted 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
On the road, Nakhon Pathom have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 1.47 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom in 76%.
Last 17 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 games (1.12 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.12 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Uthai Thani have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nakhon Pathom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Uthai Thani
1
Draws
2
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom?
From 4 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 1, Nakhon Pathom have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 1-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom?
Nakhon Pathom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Nakhon Pathom see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 50%, Nakhon Pathom 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Uthai Thani) and 62% (Nakhon Pathom).
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Nakhon Pathom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Uthai Thani's games and 75% of Nakhon Pathom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 62% of Nakhon Pathom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Nakhon Pathom in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.46 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.46 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.75 / defence 1.18 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.97 / defence 1.17, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 36% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Pathom 36%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 59%, Nakhon Pathom 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.12 PPG, Nakhon Pathom 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.