Nakhon Pathom 2-2 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Muangthong United at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Pathom vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium plays host to Nakhon Pathom versus Muangthong United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nakhon Pathom have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Pathom's home record at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium: 3W 3D 3L from 9 Thai League 1 appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Muangthong United (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Muangthong United have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Nakhon Pathom against 1.10 for Muangthong United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Nakhon Pathom register both teams scoring in 78% of relevant games, Muangthong United in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Nakhon Pathom 0W, Muangthong United 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 1–3 with Muangthong United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Nakhon Pathom half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Muangthong United half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 78% and Muangthong United 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Pathom 61% | Muangthong United 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.52 xG and Muangthong United 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.784 / defence 1.162 | Muangthong United attack 1.154 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.239. Nakhon Pathom's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Nakhon Pathom games / 48 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 33% | Draw 28% | Muangthong United 39%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Muangthong United 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Muangthong United are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Muangthong United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Pathom 78% | Muangthong United 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 23 Feb 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 33% | Draw 28% | Muangthong United 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.52 / Muangthong United 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.784 / def 1.162 | Muangthong United attack 1.154 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Muangthong United xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Muangthong United kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Muangthong United kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 23 February 2024 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Muangthong United?
Nakhon Pathom 2 - 2 Muangthong United.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Muangthong United part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 33% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Muangthong United?
Record (1 meetings): Nakhon Pathom 0W | Draws 0 | Muangthong United 1W.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Muangthong United in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Muangthong United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nakhon Pathom's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Muangthong United's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Muangthong United's attack (1.15x) against Nakhon Pathom's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
33%
3.03
28%
3.59
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
3.18
1.66
Muangthong United xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
6%
15.93
9%
11.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.66 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Nakhon Pathom have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 5W 6D 7L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Muangthong United's form line: 6W 3D 9L from 18 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Nakhon Pathom against 1.17 for Muangthong United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nakhon Pathom have posted 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
On the road, Muangthong United have gone 4W 0D 5L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.50 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Muangthong United in 72%.
Last 18 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 5W 6D 7L in their last 18 games (1.17 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 6W 3D 9L in their last 18 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Muangthong United away?
Nakhon Pathom's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.33 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Muangthong United go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Pathom have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Muangthong United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nakhon Pathom
1
Draws
3
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Muangthong United?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, Muangthong United have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 2-4 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Nakhon Pathom, 78% for Muangthong United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Nakhon Pathom and 78% for Muangthong United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Muangthong United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 78% of Muangthong United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 78% of Muangthong United's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nakhon Pathom and Muangthong United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Pathom and Muangthong United finished level at 2-2 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.52 xG and Muangthong United 1.66 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.78 / defence 1.16 against Muangthong United attack 1.15 / defence 1.19, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 33% | Draw 28% | Muangthong United 39%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 61%, Muangthong United 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Muangthong United's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 1.17 PPG, Muangthong United 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.