Trat FC 3-4 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trat FC vs Buriram United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trat FC and Buriram United meet at Trat Provincial Central Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 February 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Trat FC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trat FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trat FC at Trat Provincial Central Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Trat FC are significantly better at Trat Provincial Central Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Buriram United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Buriram United are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Trat FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Buriram United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Trat FC 0W, Buriram United 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 0–4 with Buriram United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Trat FC half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Buriram United half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trat FC 65% versus Buriram United 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Trat FC 71% | Buriram United 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trat FC 1.10 xG and Buriram United 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trat FC attack 0.834 / defence 1.223 | Buriram United attack 1.075 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.257. Data: 17 Trat FC games / 47 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trat FC 23% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 48%. Fair-value odds: Trat FC 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Buriram United 2.08. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trat FC 70% | Buriram United 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trat FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Trat Provincial Central Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trat FC 23% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Trat FC 1.10 / Buriram United 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Trat FC attack 0.834 / def 1.223 | Buriram United attack 1.075 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Trat FC xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Buriram United xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trat FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Trat FC vs Buriram United kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Trat FC vs Buriram United?
Trat FC 3 - 4 Buriram United.
Where is Trat FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What competition is Trat FC vs Buriram United part of?
Trat FC vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Trat FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Trat FC a 23% chance of winning, Buriram United a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trat FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Trat FC and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Trat FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Buriram United?
Record (1 meetings): Trat FC 0W | Draws 0 | Buriram United 1W.
What form are Trat FC and Buriram United in?
Trat FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Buriram United (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trat FC's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (1.07x) against Trat FC's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
23%
4.27
28%
3.52
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Trat FC xG
Total xG
2.75
1.65
Buriram United xG
4.27
23%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
4%
22.28
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trat FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Trat FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Trat FC and 1.65 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Trat FC vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Trat FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 5D 8L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Trat FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United's form line: 10W 6D 1L from 17 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Trat FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Trat FC have posted 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
On the road, Buriram United have gone 5W 3D 1L from 9 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trat FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 1.88 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trat FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Buriram United in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trat FC
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trat FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Trat FC have gone 4W 5D 8L in their last 17 games (1.00 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 10W 6D 1L in their last 17 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trat FC at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trat FC at home: 1.33 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Trat FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trat FC have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Buriram United in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Trat FC
0
Draws
2
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Buriram United?
From 2 meetings on record, Trat FC have won 0, Buriram United have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trat FC and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when Trat FC 3-4 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Trat FC and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trat FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Buriram United see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trat FC 67%, Buriram United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Trat FC) and 56% (Buriram United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trat FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trat FC play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Trat FC's games and 56% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trat FC vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Trat FC's matches and 56% of Buriram United's.
Do Trat FC and Buriram United tend to score early?
Trat FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Trat FC 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Trat FC 3-4 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trat FC 1.10 xG and Buriram United 1.65 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Trat FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Buriram United outscored their 1.65 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trat FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.22 against Buriram United attack 1.07 / defence 0.81, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trat FC 23% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 48%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trat FC 71%, Buriram United 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trat FC's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Buriram United's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Trat FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.