Police Tero 0-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Police Tero vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Police Tero welcome Ratchaburi to Boonyachinda Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Police Tero have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero at Boonyachinda Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Police Tero at 1.10 PPG versus Ratchaburi's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Police Tero have won 1, Ratchaburi 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–6 with Ratchaburi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Police Tero in-play and half-time data (47 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (47 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Police Tero 70% versus Ratchaburi 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Police Tero 66% | Ratchaburi 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.16 xG and Ratchaburi 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 0.832 / defence 1.495 | Ratchaburi attack 0.757 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.275. Data: 47 Police Tero games / 47 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 28% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 41%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Ratchaburi 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Police Tero 90% | Ratchaburi 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 28% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Police Tero 1.16 / Ratchaburi 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 0.832 / def 1.495 | Ratchaburi attack 0.757 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Ratchaburi xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Police Tero vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Ratchaburi?
Police Tero 0 - 1 Ratchaburi.
Where is Police Tero vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Ratchaburi part of?
Police Tero vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 28% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Police Tero and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Ratchaburi?
Record (5 meetings): Police Tero 1W | Draws 3 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Police Tero and Ratchaburi in?
Police Tero (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Police Tero's attack at 0.83x the league average against Ratchaburi's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Police Tero's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
28%
3.56
30%
3.29
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Police Tero xG
Total xG
2.60
1.44
Ratchaburi xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
7%
15.04
13%
7.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.44 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Police Tero's recent record stands at 16W 14D 17L from 47 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 16L across 47 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Police Tero on 1.32 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Police Tero have managed 9W 9D 7L from 25 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 6W 7D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Police Tero come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Police Tero are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.19 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 16W 14D 17L in their last 47 games (1.32 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 16W 15D 16L in their last 47 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Ratchaburi away?
Police Tero's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 1.44 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Police Tero and Ratchaburi runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ratchaburi have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Ratchaburi won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Police Tero's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Police Tero
3
Draws
2
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Ratchaburi?
From 6 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Police Tero 0-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Police Tero and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Police Tero 68%, Ratchaburi 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Police Tero) and 32% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Police Tero's recent matches and 40% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Police Tero vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Police Tero's recent games and 32% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Police Tero and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Police Tero 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Police Tero 0-1 at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.16 xG and Ratchaburi 1.44 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Police Tero fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 0.83 / defence 1.50 against Ratchaburi attack 0.76 / defence 0.84, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 28% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 41%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 66%, Ratchaburi 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (47 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (47 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Police Tero 1.32 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Police Tero (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.