Nakhon Pathom 1-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nakhon Pathom at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nakhon Pathom host Prachuap at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 17). Kick-off is Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 11:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Nakhon Pathom have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Nakhon Pathom's home record over their last 8 home games: 3W 2D 3L (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Prachuap stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Prachuap have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Nakhon Pathom carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Nakhon Pathom's last 8 home games and Prachuap's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Nakhon Pathom, 0 for Prachuap and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Nakhon Pathom 2–2 Prachuap — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Nakhon Pathom in-play and half-time data (last 16 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (last 16 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 75% and Prachuap 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Pathom 69% | Prachuap 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.32 xG and Prachuap 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.806 / defence 1.142 | Prachuap attack 0.832 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.324. Data: built from Nakhon Pathom's last 16 games and Prachuap's last 46.
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 36% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 33%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 2.76 | Draw 3.28 | Prachuap 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nakhon Pathom are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Pathom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Nakhon Pathom's last 8 home games and Prachuap's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nakhon Pathom 75% (last 8 home games) | Prachuap 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 17 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 36% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.32 / Prachuap 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.806 / def 1.142 | Prachuap attack 0.832 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Pathom (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Prachuap xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap FAQs
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap?
Nakhon Pathom 1 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 17) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 36% chance of winning, Prachuap a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Pathom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nakhon Pathom's attack rating (0.81) and Prachuap's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Nakhon Pathom's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nakhon Pathom's last 16 games and Prachuap's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Pathom Win
36%
2.76
31%
3.28
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
2.58
1.26
Prachuap xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
10%
9.71
9%
11.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.26 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Nakhon Pathom have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 5W 4D 7L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Prachuap's form line: 2W 5D 9L from 16 games, 0.69 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Nakhon Pathom are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Prachuap.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nakhon Pathom have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 8 home games (3W 2D 3L).
On the road, Prachuap have gone 0W 3D 5L from their last 8 away games — 0.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Pathom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.06 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Prachuap in 69%.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
Nakhon Pathom (Home) vs Prachuap (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap Form FAQs
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 2W 5D 9L in their last 16 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Prachuap away?
Nakhon Pathom's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.38 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nakhon Pathom's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nakhon Pathom
3
Draws
1
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, Prachuap have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2025: Prachuap 1-0 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nakhon Pathom at 75%, Prachuap at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Nakhon Pathom) and 38% (Prachuap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Prachuap in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 62% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 38% of Prachuap's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Nakhon Pathom's recent matches and 62% of Prachuap's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap finished level at 1-1 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.32 xG and Prachuap 1.26 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.81 / defence 1.14 against Prachuap attack 0.83 / defence 1.03, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 36% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 33%, with Nakhon Pathom to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 69%, Prachuap 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Pathom arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.