Sukhothai FC 3-0 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 44%, yet in-form Muangthong United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sukhothai FC host Muangthong United at Thalay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 30). Kick-off is Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Sukhothai FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Muangthong United — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Muangthong United have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Muangthong United — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Muangthong United have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Sukhothai FC.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended Sukhothai FC 0–1 Muangthong United — a Muangthong United win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Muangthong United have won 6 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Muangthong United in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 58% versus Muangthong United 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 49% | Muangthong United 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.29 xG and Muangthong United 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.830 / defence 0.999 | Muangthong United attack 0.847 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.027. Data: built from Sukhothai FC's last 59 games and Muangthong United's last 59.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 44% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 22%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.29 | Draw 2.95 | Muangthong United 4.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Muangthong United (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sukhothai FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Muangthong United 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 30 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 44% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Sukhothai FC 1.29 / Muangthong United 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.830 / def 0.999 | Muangthong United attack 0.847 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Muangthong United xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United FAQs
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Sukhothai FC 3 - 0 Muangthong United.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 30) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 44% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.83x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sukhothai FC's last 59 games and Muangthong United's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
44%
2.29
34%
2.95
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.16
0.87
Muangthong United xG
2.29
44%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
6%
16.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.1 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 0.87 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sukhothai FC come into this having played 59 games, going 14W 19D 26L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Muangthong United sit at 1.20 PPG from 59 outings (19W 14D 26L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.03 PPG, Muangthong United on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sukhothai FC's home form reads 13W 8D 8L across their last 29 home games, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Muangthong United have taken 0.69 points per game from their last 29 away games (4W 8D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.24 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Current Season
Muangthong United
Current Season
Sukhothai FC (Home) vs Muangthong United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sukhothai FC
Current Season
Muangthong United
Current Season
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United Form FAQs
What form are Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 14W 19D 26L in their last 59 games (1.03 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 19W 14D 26L in their last 59 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Muangthong United away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.62 PPG; Muangthong United away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2022. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 May 2024, when Muangthong United won Muangthong United 5-0 Sukhothai FC.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
6
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Muangthong United have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Sukhothai FC 3-0 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 69%, Muangthong United 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Sukhothai FC) and 55% (Muangthong United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Muangthong United in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Sukhothai FC's games and 59% of Muangthong United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 55% of Muangthong United's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 83% of Muangthong United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sukhothai FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Muangthong United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Muangthong United 3-0 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.29 xG and Muangthong United 0.87 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sukhothai FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Muangthong United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.00 against Muangthong United attack 0.85 / defence 1.03, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 44% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 22%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 49%, Muangthong United 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Muangthong United's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.03 PPG, Muangthong United 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.