Sukhothai FC 3-0 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 44%, yet in-form Muangthong United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sukhothai FC host Muangthong United at Thalay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Sukhothai FC's home record at Thalay Luang Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thalay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Muangthong United — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Muangthong United have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Muangthong United — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Muangthong United have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 7 encounters against Sukhothai FC's 1 victories.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Muangthong United winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Muangthong United have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Muangthong United in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 58% versus Muangthong United 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 49% | Muangthong United 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.29 xG and Muangthong United 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.830 / defence 0.999 | Muangthong United attack 0.847 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.027. Data: 59 Sukhothai FC games / 59 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 44% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 22%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Muangthong United 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Muangthong United (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Sukhothai FC 70% | Muangthong United 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 44% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.29 / Muangthong United 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.830 / def 0.999 | Muangthong United attack 0.847 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Muangthong United xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Sukhothai FC 3 - 0 Muangthong United.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 44% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United?
Record (7 meetings): Sukhothai FC 1W | Draws 0 | Muangthong United 6W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Muangthong United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.83x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
44%
2.29
34%
2.95
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.16
0.87
Muangthong United xG
2.29
44%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
6%
16.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.1 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 0.87 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sukhothai FC come into this having played 59 games, going 14W 19D 26L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Muangthong United sit at 1.20 PPG from 59 outings (19W 14D 26L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.03 PPG, Muangthong United on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sukhothai FC's home form reads 13W 8D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Muangthong United have taken 0.69 points per game from 29 outings (4W 8D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.24 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Current Season
Muangthong United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 14W 19D 26L in their last 59 games (1.03 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 19W 14D 26L in their last 59 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Muangthong United away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.62 PPG; Muangthong United away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Muangthong United won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
6
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Muangthong United have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sukhothai FC 3-0 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 69%, Muangthong United 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Sukhothai FC) and 55% (Muangthong United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Muangthong United in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Muangthong United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Sukhothai FC's games and 59% of Muangthong United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 55% of Muangthong United's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sukhothai FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Muangthong United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Muangthong United 3-0 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.29 xG and Muangthong United 0.87 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sukhothai FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Muangthong United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.00 against Muangthong United attack 0.85 / defence 1.03, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 44% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 22%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 49%, Muangthong United 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Muangthong United's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.03 PPG, Muangthong United 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.