Ratchaburi 1-2 Ayutthaya FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ratchaburi face Ayutthaya FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ratchaburi host Ayutthaya FC at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1 (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 15 March 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Ratchaburi — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ayutthaya FC stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ratchaburi at 1.90 PPG versus Ayutthaya FC's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Ratchaburi have won 1, Ayutthaya FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Ratchaburi 3–1 Ayutthaya FC — a Ratchaburi win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 52% versus Ayutthaya FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 48% | Ayutthaya FC 44%). Note also that Ayutthaya FC surrender HT leads in 60% of cases while Ratchaburi recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.31 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.010 / defence 0.888 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.960 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.133. Data: built from Ratchaburi's last 51 games and Ayutthaya FC's last 23.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 33% | Ayutthaya FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Ayutthaya FC 4.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ratchaburi 40% (last 10 home games) | Ayutthaya FC 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 33% | Ayutthaya FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Ratchaburi 1.31 / Ayutthaya FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.010 / def 0.888 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.960 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Ayutthaya FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC FAQs
What time does Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC?
Ratchaburi 1 - 2 Ayutthaya FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 25) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 42% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Ayutthaya FC's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Ayutthaya FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ratchaburi's last 51 games and Ayutthaya FC's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
42%
2.38
33%
3.03
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.28
0.97
Ayutthaya FC xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
7%
14.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.97 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 15W 3D 5L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Ayutthaya FC's form line: 7W 8D 8L from 23 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ayutthaya FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 2.09 PPG from their last 11 home games (7W 2D 2L).
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 5W 4D 2L from their last 11 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.26 PPG overall record — Ayutthaya FC travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.26 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC in 61%.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
Ratchaburi (Home) vs Ayutthaya FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ratchaburi
Blended
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
❓ Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC Form FAQs
What form are Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 15W 3D 5L in their last 23 games (2.09 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 7W 8D 8L in their last 23 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 2.09 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Ayutthaya FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ayutthaya FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2025. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Ayutthaya FC have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Ratchaburi
0
Draws
2
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Ratchaburi have won 1, Ayutthaya FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Ayutthaya FC 2-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC?
Ayutthaya FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 36%, Ayutthaya FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Ratchaburi) and 46% (Ayutthaya FC).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Ayutthaya FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 54% of Ayutthaya FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 46% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 73% of Ayutthaya FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ayutthaya FC defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ayutthaya FC beat Ratchaburi 1-2 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.31 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ayutthaya FC outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against Ayutthaya FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.87, drawn from 51/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 33% | Ayutthaya FC 25%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Ayutthaya FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 48%, Ayutthaya FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Ayutthaya FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.