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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Pattani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Pattani travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 February 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Prachuap haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.84 xG and Pattani 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.012 / defence 0.905 | Pattani attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Prachuap games / 0 Pattani games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 61% | Draw 26% | Pattani 14%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Pattani 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Pattani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Prachuap (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L • Prachuap home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | CS 4
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 61% | Draw 26% | Pattani 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG Prachuap 1.84 / Pattani 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.012 / def 0.905 | Pattani attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (61%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Pattani xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Pattani kick off?
Prachuap vs Pattani is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Sam Ao Stadium.
Where is Prachuap vs Pattani being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Pattani part of?
Prachuap vs Pattani is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Pattani?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 61% chance of winning, Pattani a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Pattani?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Prachuap and Pattani will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Pattani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Pattani?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Prachuap and Pattani in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Prachuap (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L • Prachuap home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | CS 4
What do the betting odds say about Prachuap vs Pattani?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture