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Poisson model favours Port FC (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Port FC face Sukhothai FC.

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Analysis

Sukhothai FC make the trip to PAT Stadium to face Port FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Friday 12 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

Port FC (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Port FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.

Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sukhothai FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form ledger tips toward Port FC. A 1.70 PPG lead over Sukhothai FC (2.40 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Port FC 5W, Sukhothai FC 3W, 0D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 5–0 with Port FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 40% versus Sukhothai FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 47% | Sukhothai FC 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.02 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.156 / defence 0.854 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.816 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Port FC games / 30 Sukhothai FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Port FC 66% | Draw 23% | Sukhothai FC 11%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.52 | Draw 4.35 | Sukhothai FC 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (66%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 40% | Sukhothai FC 20% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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