🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Rasi Salai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Lamphun Warrior and Rasi Salai United meet at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.

Current Form

Lamphun Warrior's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 7D 2L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Lamphun Warrior's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 2W 7D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.69 xG and Rasi Salai United 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.928 / defence 0.982 | Rasi Salai United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Lamphun Warrior games / 0 Rasi Salai United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 55% | Draw 28% | Rasi Salai United 17%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Rasi Salai United 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights