Lamphun Warrior vs Rasi Salai United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Rasi Salai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior and Rasi Salai United meet at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lamphun Warrior's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rasi Salai United (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rasi Salai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Lamphun Warrior's 0.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Rasi Salai United's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Lamphun Warrior register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Rasi Salai United in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.62 xG and Rasi Salai United 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.982 / defence 1.005 | Rasi Salai United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 0.918. Data: 30 Lamphun Warrior games / 1 Rasi Salai United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 57% | Draw 26% | Rasi Salai United 17%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Rasi Salai United 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 44% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Rasi Salai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 57% | Draw 26% | Rasi Salai United 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.62 / Rasi Salai United 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.982 / def 1.005 | Rasi Salai United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.438 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Rasi Salai United xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Rasi Salai United kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Rasi Salai United is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Rasi Salai United being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Rasi Salai United part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Rasi Salai United is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Rasi Salai United?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 57% chance of winning, Rasi Salai United a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Rasi Salai United?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Rasi Salai United will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Rasi Salai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Rasi Salai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Rasi Salai United in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Rasi Salai United (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Rasi Salai United's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Rasi Salai United's attack (0.85x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 30/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
57%
1.77
26%
3.82
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.41
0.78
Rasi Salai United xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
3%
29.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Rasi Salai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Rasi Salai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 0.78 for Rasi Salai United, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Rasi Salai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rasi Salai United, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rasi Salai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 0.00 for Rasi Salai United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; Rasi Salai United are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Rasi Salai United in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Rasi Salai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Rasi Salai United in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Rasi Salai United have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Rasi Salai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Rasi Salai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 100% of Rasi Salai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Rasi Salai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 100% of Rasi Salai United's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Rasi Salai United tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rasi Salai United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.