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Poisson model favours Ratchaburi (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ratchaburi face Rayong FC.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Ratchaburi welcome Rayong FC to Dragon Solar Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ratchaburi haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Ratchaburi's home record at Dragon Solar Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rayong FC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rayong FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Rayong FC's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

Ratchaburi hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Rayong FC, with 0 draws in between.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 6–1 with Ratchaburi winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ratchaburi and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 5.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Rayong FC in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ratchaburi 57% and Rayong FC 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 53% | Rayong FC 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.32 xG and Rayong FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.141 / defence 1.023 | Rayong FC attack 1.002 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Ratchaburi games / 30 Rayong FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 64% | Draw 21% | Rayong FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Rayong FC 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 70% | Rayong FC 80% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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