Port FC 3-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Prachuap have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Port FC, 1.80 for Prachuap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Port FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Prachuap in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Port FC 2W, Prachuap 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Port FC — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Prachuap — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 76% and Prachuap 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 61% | Prachuap 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.40 xG and Prachuap 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.085 / defence 0.981 | Prachuap attack 0.943 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.073. Data: 33 Port FC games / 33 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 46% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 26%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Prachuap 3.85. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Port FC 70% | Prachuap 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 46% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Port FC 1.40 / Prachuap 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.085 / def 0.981 | Prachuap attack 0.943 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Port FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Prachuap xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Port FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Prachuap?
Port FC 3 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Port FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Prachuap part of?
Port FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 46% chance of winning, Prachuap a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Port FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Prachuap?
Record (4 meetings): Port FC 2W | Draws 1 | Prachuap 1W.
What form are Port FC and Prachuap in?
Port FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Prachuap (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Port FC's attack at 1.08x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (0.94x) against Port FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.51
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.39
0.99
Prachuap xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
6%
15.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Port FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Port FC and 0.99 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port FC's recent record stands at 16W 11D 6L from 33 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 13L across 33 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Prachuap heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 10W 4D 2L from 16 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Prachuap's away record stands at 3W 5D 8L across 16 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.42 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Prachuap in 64%.
Last 33 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 16W 11D 6L in their last 33 games (1.79 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 10W 10D 13L in their last 33 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Prachuap away?
Port FC's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.12 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Port FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-2 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Port FC
3
Draws
2
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 5, Prachuap have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Port FC 3-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Prachuap?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Port FC, 62% for Prachuap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Port FC and 62% for Prachuap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Port FC's games and 62% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Port FC's matches and 62% of Prachuap's.
Do Port FC and Prachuap tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Prachuap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Prachuap 3-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.40 xG and Prachuap 0.99 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.98 against Prachuap attack 0.94 / defence 0.82, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 46% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 26%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 61%, Prachuap 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm. Prachuap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.