Buriram United 4-0 Trat FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Trat FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chang Arena plays host to Buriram United versus Trat FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 15 September 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Buriram United have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Buriram United's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Chang Arena this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Buriram United are significantly better at Chang Arena than their overall form suggests.
Trat FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Trat FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Buriram United. A 1.00 PPG lead over Trat FC (2.00 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Buriram United — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Trat FC — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Buriram United 0% | Trat FC 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Buriram United 33% | Trat FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.72 xG and Trat FC 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.326 / defence 0.833 | Trat FC attack 0.734 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.142. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 Buriram United games / 3 Trat FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Buriram United 61% | Draw 26% | Trat FC 13%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Trat FC 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 30% | Trat FC 33% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Trat FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Friday 15 Sep 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 61% | Draw 26% | Trat FC 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG Buriram United 1.72 / Trat FC 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.326 / def 0.833 | Trat FC attack 0.734 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Trat FC xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Trat FC kick off?
Buriram United vs Trat FC kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 15 September 2023 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Trat FC?
Buriram United 4 - 0 Trat FC.
Where is Buriram United vs Trat FC being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Trat FC part of?
Buriram United vs Trat FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Trat FC?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 61% chance of winning, Trat FC a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Trat FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Buriram United and Trat FC will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Trat FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Trat FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Buriram United and Trat FC in?
Buriram United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Trat FC (all comps): 0W-3D-0L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Buriram United's attack rating (1.33) and Trat FC's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trat FC's attack (0.73x) against Buriram United's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
61%
1.65
26%
3.87
13%
7.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.42
0.70
Trat FC xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
7.43
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
2%
41.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 10.7 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Trat FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Trat FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.70 for Trat FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Trat FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Buriram United come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 1D 0L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Trat FC sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 3D 0L), a run that reads D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Trat FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Trat FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Buriram United are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Trat FC are on 0.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Trat FC in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Early Season
Trat FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Trat FC in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Trat FC have gone 0W 3D 0L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Buriram United or Trat FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Trat FC in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Buriram United
0
Draws
0
Trat FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Trat FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 2, Trat FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Trat FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when Trat FC 3-4 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Trat FC?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Buriram United see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Trat FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Buriram United) and 33% (Trat FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Buriram United and 33% for Trat FC.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; Trat FC in 67%; Buriram United have failed to score in 33% of games; Trat FC in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Trat FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Trat FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Buriram United's recent matches and 33% of Trat FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Trat FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Buriram United's recent games and 33% of Trat FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Trat FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Trat FC 4-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.72 xG and Trat FC 0.70 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.33 / defence 0.83 against Trat FC attack 0.73 / defence 0.99, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 61% | Draw 26% | Trat FC 13%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 33%, Trat FC 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time, and duly kept one.
Trat FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Buriram United scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Trat FC shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.