Trat FC 2-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trat FC vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trat FC host Port FC at Trat Provincial Central Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 September 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trat FC — All Games: 0W 3D 1L from 4 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.75 points per game. Last five: D D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Trat FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Port FC are 1.55 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.75), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Trat FC trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Port FC trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 100%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trat FC 25% and Port FC 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Trat FC 50% | Port FC 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trat FC 1.24 xG and Port FC 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trat FC attack 0.785 / defence 1.082 | Port FC attack 1.318 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.075. Trat FC's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Port FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — the away xG of 1.53 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 Trat FC games / 34 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trat FC 30% | Draw 27% | Port FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Trat FC 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Port FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trat FC 25% | Port FC 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trat FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Trat Provincial Central Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trat FC 30% | Draw 27% | Port FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Trat FC 1.24 / Port FC 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Trat FC attack 0.785 / def 1.082 | Port FC attack 1.318 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Port FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Trat FC xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Port FC xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trat FC vs Port FC kick off?
Trat FC vs Port FC kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Trat FC vs Port FC?
Trat FC 2 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Trat FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What competition is Trat FC vs Port FC part of?
Trat FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Trat FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Trat FC a 30% chance of winning, Port FC a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trat FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Trat FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Trat FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Port FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trat FC and Port FC in?
Trat FC (all comps): 0W-3D-1L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L. Port FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Trat FC's attack rating (0.79) and Port FC's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Trat FC's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
30%
3.33
27%
3.74
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Trat FC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.53
Port FC xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
6%
15.40
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trat FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Trat FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Trat FC and 1.53 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Trat FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Trat FC have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 0W 3D 1L record — D-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Trat FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC's form line: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games, 2.50 PPG, last five D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 1.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Trat FC.
Goals in Recent Form
Trat FC are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trat FC have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Port FC in 100%.
Defensively: Trat FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trat FC
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trat FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Trat FC have gone 0W 3D 1L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Port FC have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
Have Trat FC or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trat FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Port FC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Trat FC
0
Draws
1
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Port FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Trat FC have won 1, Port FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trat FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Port FC 1-0 Trat FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trat FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trat FC 25%, Port FC 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Trat FC and 100% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trat FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Trat FC have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trat FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trat FC play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Trat FC's games and 100% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trat FC vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Trat FC's matches and 100% of Port FC's.
Do Trat FC and Port FC tend to score early?
Trat FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Port FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trat FC defy the odds to beat Port FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trat FC beat Port FC 2-1 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trat FC 1.24 xG and Port FC 1.53 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trat FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.08 against Port FC attack 1.32 / defence 0.98, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trat FC 30% | Draw 27% | Port FC 43%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Trat FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trat FC 50%, Port FC 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trat FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Port FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Trat FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Trat FC scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Port FC managed 1 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.