Prachuap 2-2 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Prachuap face Nakhon Pathom.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Prachuap host Nakhon Pathom at Sam Ao Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 3). Kick-off is Sunday 27 August 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Prachuap have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Prachuap have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nakhon Pathom — last 2 games: 1W 1D 0L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Prachuap) versus 2.00 (Nakhon Pathom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.33 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.048 / defence 0.871 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.869 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.035. Data: built from Prachuap's last 32 games and Nakhon Pathom's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 48% | Draw 32% | Nakhon Pathom 20%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.09 | Draw 3.16 | Nakhon Pathom 4.90. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Prachuap 32 games, Nakhon Pathom 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 3 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 48% | Draw 32% | Nakhon Pathom 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Prachuap 1.33 / Nakhon Pathom 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.048 / def 0.871 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.869 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Nakhon Pathom xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom FAQs
What time does Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom?
Prachuap 2 - 2 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 3) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 48% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Prachuap's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Pathom's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Pathom's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Prachuap's last 32 games and Nakhon Pathom's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
48%
2.09
32%
3.16
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.11
0.78
Nakhon Pathom xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
5%
18.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.78 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Prachuap's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D in the last five.
Nakhon Pathom, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 0L across 2 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 2.00 PPG, Nakhon Pathom on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Prachuap are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Nakhon Pathom in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Nakhon Pathom
Early Season
Prachuap (Home) vs Nakhon Pathom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Prachuap
Early Season
Nakhon Pathom
Early Season
❓ Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom Form FAQs
What form are Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Prachuap or Nakhon Pathom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Nakhon Pathom in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2023. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Prachuap's record when hosting Nakhon Pathom specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Prachuap
3
Draws
0
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Prachuap have won 1, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2025: Prachuap 1-0 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Prachuap's recent matches and 50% of Nakhon Pathom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Prachuap's recent games and 50% of Nakhon Pathom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 0% of Prachuap's recent matches and 50% of Nakhon Pathom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom finished level at 2-2 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.33 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.78 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Nakhon Pathom outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.05 / defence 0.87 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.87 / defence 0.96, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 48% | Draw 32% | Nakhon Pathom 20%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 0%, Nakhon Pathom 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 2.00 PPG, Nakhon Pathom 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Prachuap scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nakhon Pathom shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.