Chiangrai United 2-0 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Chiangrai United (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Chiangrai United face Khon Kaen United.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chiangrai United host Khon Kaen United at LEO Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Chiangrai United have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Chiangrai United have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Khon Kaen United — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Khon Kaen United have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Chiangrai United's games and 60% of Khon Kaen United's (from Chiangrai United's last 10 home games and Khon Kaen United's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Chiangrai United hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Khon Kaen United and 1 draw.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 18 Feb 2023, ended Chiangrai United 3–1 Khon Kaen United — a Chiangrai United win.
The head-to-head data gives Chiangrai United an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Khon Kaen United in-play and half-time data (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 67% versus Khon Kaen United 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 58% | Khon Kaen United 33%). Note also that Khon Kaen United surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Chiangrai United recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.61 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 1.129 / defence 0.937 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.837 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.119. Data: built from Chiangrai United's last 33 games and Khon Kaen United's last 33.
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 53% | Draw 27% | Khon Kaen United 19%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.87 | Draw 3.65 | Khon Kaen United 5.20. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches — though recent form (Chiangrai United's last 10 home games and Khon Kaen United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Chiangrai United 80% (last 10 home games) | Khon Kaen United 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 4 | Venue: LEO Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 53% | Draw 27% | Khon Kaen United 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Chiangrai United 1.61 / Khon Kaen United 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 1.129 / def 0.937 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.837 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Khon Kaen United xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United FAQs
What time does Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United?
Chiangrai United 2 - 0 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 4) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 53% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Chiangrai United and Khon Kaen United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 1.13x the league average against Khon Kaen United's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khon Kaen United's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chiangrai United's last 33 games and Khon Kaen United's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
53%
1.87
27%
3.65
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.49
0.88
Khon Kaen United xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
4%
26.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 0.88 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chiangrai United come into this having played 33 games, going 14W 9D 10L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Khon Kaen United sit at 1.09 PPG from 33 outings (7W 15D 11L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Khon Kaen United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Chiangrai United's home form reads 9W 4D 3L across their last 16 home games, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Khon Kaen United have taken 0.62 points per game from their last 16 away games (1W 7D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khon Kaen United's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 0.79 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Khon Kaen United
Early Season
Chiangrai United (Home) vs Khon Kaen United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Khon Kaen United
Early Season
❓ Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United Form FAQs
What form are Chiangrai United and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 14W 9D 10L in their last 33 games (1.55 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 7W 15D 11L in their last 33 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.94 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Khon Kaen United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Khon Kaen United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Khon Kaen United specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Chiangrai United
2
Draws
1
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Khon Kaen United?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Chiangrai United have won 5, Khon Kaen United have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2025: Khon Kaen United 3-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Khon Kaen United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 69%, Khon Kaen United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Chiangrai United) and 31% (Khon Kaen United).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Khon Kaen United in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chiangrai United vs Khon Kaen United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chiangrai United and Khon Kaen United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Chiangrai United's games and 50% of Khon Kaen United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chiangrai United and Khon Kaen United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 31% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Khon Kaen United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 75% of Khon Kaen United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chiangrai United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Khon Kaen United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Khon Kaen United 2-0 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.61 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.88 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Khon Kaen United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 1.13 / defence 0.94 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.84 / defence 0.90, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 53% | Draw 27% | Khon Kaen United 19%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 58%, Khon Kaen United 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.