Port FC 2-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Port FC (78%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Port FC face Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Port FC have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Port FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Port FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record over their last 10 games: 1W 0D 9L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Port FC. A 1.40 PPG lead over Nakhon Ratchasima FC (1.70 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Port FC, who have won 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Nakhon Ratchasima FC — Nakhon Ratchasima FC have 1 win, with 1 draw.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Port FC 2–0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC — a Port FC win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Port FC and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Port FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Nakhon Ratchasima FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 56% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 52% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%). Note also that Nakhon Ratchasima FC surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Port FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.61 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.340 / defence 0.771 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.769 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.145. Port FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.340 — their 2.61 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating of 1.252 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Port FC's projected output up. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. Port FC have a tight defence (rating 0.771), which is pulling Nakhon Ratchasima FC's projected output down. Data: built from Port FC's last 50 games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 48.
Result probabilities: Port FC 78% | Draw 16% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 7%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.29 | Draw 6.36 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 15.36. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (78%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 78% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Port FC's last 10 home games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Port FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 22 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 78% | Draw 16% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Port FC 2.61 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.340 / def 0.771 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.769 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Port FC (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.61
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
47%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC FAQs
What time does Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Port FC 2 - 0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 22) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 78% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 7% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.34) and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack (0.77x) against Port FC's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from Port FC's last 50 games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
78%
1.29
16%
6.36
7%
15.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.61
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.29
0.68
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
1.29
78%
Home win
6.36
16%
Draw
15.36
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
7%
13.57
Win to Nil
39%
2.54
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.61 expected goals for Port FC and 0.68 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port FC's recent record stands at 22W 12D 14L from 48 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC, meanwhile, have gone 9W 15D 24L across 48 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nakhon Ratchasima FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 13W 8D 3L from their last 24 home games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record stands at 2W 7D 15L across their last 24 away games, a 0.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port FC are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 0.98 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Port FC (Home) vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Port FC
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Form FAQs
What form are Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 22W 12D 14L in their last 48 games (1.62 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 9W 15D 24L in their last 48 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Port FC's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.96 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Port FC have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Port FC
1
Draws
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Port FC have won 6, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Port FC 2-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 62%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Port FC) and 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Port FC's recent matches and 46% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Port FC's recent games and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Port FC's recent matches and 62% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 2.61 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.68 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.34 / defence 0.77 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.25, drawn from 50/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 78% | Draw 16% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 7%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 52%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.