Port FC 3-1 Buriram United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Port FC at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Port FC face Buriram United.

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Fixture Analysis

Port FC welcome Buriram United to PAT Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 2 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Port FC have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Port FC at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Buriram United — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Port FC) versus 2.20 (Buriram United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 9 H2H matches, Port FC have won 3, Buriram United 4, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Port FC 0–1 Buriram United — a Buriram United win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Port FC in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Buriram United in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 53% versus Buriram United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 52% | Buriram United 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.89 xG and Buriram United 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.308 / defence 0.634 | Buriram United attack 1.423 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.049. Port FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.308 — their 1.89 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Buriram United have an above-average attack rating of 1.423, which lifts their away xG to 0.95. Port FC have a tight defence (rating 0.634), which is pulling Buriram United's projected output down. Data: built from Port FC's last 58 games and Buriram United's last 58.

Result probabilities: Port FC 58% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 17%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.74 | Draw 3.87 | Buriram United 6.05. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (58%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Port FC's last 10 home games and Buriram United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Port FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Buriram United 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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