Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pattani and Lamphun Warrior meet at Rainbow Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pattani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: D W L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.33 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Pattani half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Lamphun Warrior half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pattani 33% and Lamphun Warrior 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pattani 67% | Lamphun Warrior 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.79 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.598 / defence 1.206 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.902 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.221. Pattani's attack strength of 0.598 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Pattani games / 33 Lamphun Warrior games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pattani 22% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 49%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Lamphun Warrior 2.04. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pattani 33% | Lamphun Warrior 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 22% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Pattani 0.79 / Lamphun Warrior 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.598 / def 1.206 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.902 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Lamphun Warrior xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 March 2027 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 22% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Pattani and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Lamphun Warrior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Lamphun Warrior in?
Pattani (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pattani's attack at 0.60x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.90x) against Pattani's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
22%
4.48
28%
3.53
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.12
1.33
Lamphun Warrior xG
4.48
22%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
6%
16.92
22%
4.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 15.9 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Pattani and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Pattani and 1.33 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Pattani have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pattani are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamphun Warrior.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pattani are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.00 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Pattani or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Pattani, 100% for Lamphun Warrior — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Pattani and 67% for Lamphun Warrior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pattani keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pattani have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Pattani's games and 100% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Pattani's matches and 67% of Lamphun Warrior's.
Do Pattani and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.