Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pattani face Lamphun Warrior.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pattani and Lamphun Warrior meet at Rainbow Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 March 2027 at 12:00 UK time.
Current Form
Pattani's record over their last 8 games: 2W 1D 5L (0.88 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings (12%). Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Pattani have posted 1W 1D 2L from their last 4 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lamphun Warrior (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Lamphun Warrior's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.88 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Lamphun Warrior edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2026, ended Pattani 1–3 Lamphun Warrior — a Lamphun Warrior win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Pattani half-time and goal-timing data (last 8 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lamphun Warrior half-time and goal-timing data (last 8 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pattani 62% versus Lamphun Warrior 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pattani 75% | Lamphun Warrior 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.70 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.643 / defence 1.043 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.156 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.430. Pattani's attack rating of 0.643 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Lamphun Warrior bring a tight defence (rating 0.775, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Pattani's projected output down. Data: built from Pattani's last 8 games and Lamphun Warrior's last 38.
Result probabilities: Pattani 13% | Draw 26% | Lamphun Warrior 61%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 7.49 | Draw 3.84 | Lamphun Warrior 1.65. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (61%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pattani's last 4 home games and Lamphun Warrior's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pattani 25% (last 4 home games) | Lamphun Warrior 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 20 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 March 2027 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 13% | Draw 26% | Lamphun Warrior 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Pattani 0.70 / Lamphun Warrior 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.643 / def 1.043 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.156 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Lamphun Warrior xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior FAQs
What time does Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 7 March 2027 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 20) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 13% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 61% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Pattani and Lamphun Warrior will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pattani's attack at 0.64x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (1.16x) against Pattani's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from Pattani's last 8 games and Lamphun Warrior's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
13%
7.49
26%
3.84
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.42
1.72
Lamphun Warrior xG
7.49
13%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
2%
42.00
30%
3.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 15.3 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Pattani and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Pattani and 1.72 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Pattani have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 2W 1D 5L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 3W 2D 3L from 8 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Lamphun Warrior are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pattani.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pattani have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 4 home games (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 1D 1L from their last 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pattani are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pattani have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lamphun Warrior in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Pattani (Home) vs Lamphun Warrior (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pattani
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior Form FAQs
What form are Pattani and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pattani at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Lamphun Warrior's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pattani at home: 1.00 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Pattani or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 1 H2H match between these sides on record, dating back to October 2026 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Pattani
0
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Lamphun Warrior?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, Pattani have won 0, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pattani and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Lamphun Warrior 3-1 Pattani.
Who has won more matches between Pattani and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 1 head-to-head match in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pattani 25%, Lamphun Warrior 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pattani) and 50% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 50%; Pattani have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pattani and Lamphun Warrior matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Pattani's recent matches and 50% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pattani and Lamphun Warrior matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pattani's recent games and 50% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pattani and Lamphun Warrior matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Pattani's recent matches and 75% of Lamphun Warrior's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.