Rayong FC vs Port FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Port FC (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rayong FC face Port FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rayong Provincial Stadium plays host to Rayong FC versus Port FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 7 March 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rayong FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rayong FC have posted 3W 6D 1L at Rayong Provincial Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port FC (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Port FC arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Rayong FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Port FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Rayong FC 1W, Port FC 3W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2026, ended 1–4 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Rayong FC — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Port FC — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 75% and Port FC 47% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 53% | Port FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.00 xG and Port FC 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 0.837 / defence 1.028 | Port FC attack 1.047 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Data: 37 Rayong FC games / 36 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 23% | Draw 27% | Port FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Port FC 2.00. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rayong FC 70% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Rayong Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 23% | Draw 27% | Port FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Rayong FC 1.00 / Port FC 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 0.837 / def 1.028 | Port FC attack 1.047 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Port FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Port FC xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Port FC kick off?
Rayong FC vs Port FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 7 March 2027 at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
Where is Rayong FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Port FC part of?
Rayong FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 23% chance of winning, Port FC a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rayong FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Port FC?
Record (5 meetings): Rayong FC 1W | Draws 1 | Port FC 3W.
What form are Rayong FC and Port FC in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Port FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rayong FC's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (1.05x) against Rayong FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
23%
4.33
27%
3.67
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.56
1.57
Port FC xG
4.33
23%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
5%
20.75
18%
5.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.57 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rayong FC's recent record stands at 11W 12D 13L from 36 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 6D 7L across 36 games — 2.08 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rayong FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rayong FC have managed 8W 8D 2L from 18 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Rayong FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Port FC's away record stands at 9W 2D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rayong FC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.03 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Port FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 11W 12D 13L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while Port FC have gone 23W 6D 7L in their last 36 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Port FC away?
Rayong FC's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.78 PPG; Port FC away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Rayong FC or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayong FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Port FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 24 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 4-1 on 30 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayong FC have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Rayong FC
1
Draws
3
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Port FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 1, Port FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2026, when Port FC 4-1 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayong FC 67%, Port FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Rayong FC) and 39% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC in 33%; Port FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rayong FC's games and 44% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayong FC vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Rayong FC's recent games and 39% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayong FC and Port FC tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Port FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.