Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United encounter.

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Full Analysis

80th Birthday Stadium plays host to Nakhon Ratchasima FC versus Chiangrai United in Thai League 1 (matchday 25). Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 12:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Nakhon Ratchasima FC have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Chiangrai United (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Chiangrai United away from home: 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Chiangrai United are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 4 for Chiangrai United and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0–2 Chiangrai United — a Chiangrai United win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Nakhon Ratchasima FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54% versus Chiangrai United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 52% | Chiangrai United 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.27 xG and Chiangrai United 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.752 / defence 1.126 | Chiangrai United attack 1.272 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.187. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating of 0.752 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.27. Chiangrai United have an above-average attack rating of 1.272, which lifts their away xG to 1.70. Data: built from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 52 games and Chiangrai United's last 52.

Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 46%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.74 | Draw 3.64 | Chiangrai United 2.19. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.27 / 1.70) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 10 home games and Chiangrai United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Chiangrai United 90% (last 10 away games).

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