Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Kanchanaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 67% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lamphun Warrior face Kanchanaburi.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lamphun Warrior welcome Kanchanaburi to 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off is Monday 9 February 2026 at 11:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Lamphun Warrior — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 7D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kanchanaburi stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kanchanaburi away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lamphun Warrior at 1.20 PPG versus Kanchanaburi's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, Kanchanaburi 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Lamphun Warrior 0–4 Kanchanaburi — a Kanchanaburi win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Kanchanaburi in-play tendencies (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 71%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 68% and Kanchanaburi 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 63% | Kanchanaburi 42%). Note also that Kanchanaburi surrender HT leads in 71% of cases while Lamphun Warrior recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 57% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 2.22 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.058 / defence 1.179 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.707 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.087. Kanchanaburi's defence rating of 1.331 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lamphun Warrior's projected output up. Kanchanaburi's attack rating of 0.707 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Lamphun Warrior's last 49 games and Kanchanaburi's last 19.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 67% | Draw 19% | Kanchanaburi 14%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.49 | Draw 5.32 | Kanchanaburi 7.13. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (67%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lamphun Warrior's last 10 home games and Kanchanaburi's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamphun Warrior 80% (last 10 home games) | Kanchanaburi 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 20 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 9 February 2026 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 67% | Draw 19% | Kanchanaburi 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Lamphun Warrior 2.22 / Kanchanaburi 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.058 / def 1.179 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.707 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Kanchanaburi xG
53%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi FAQs
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Monday 9 February 2026 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 1 Kanchanaburi.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 20) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 67% chance of winning, Kanchanaburi a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (1.06) and Kanchanaburi's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kanchanaburi's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lamphun Warrior's last 49 games and Kanchanaburi's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.32
14%
7.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
3.13
0.91
Kanchanaburi xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.32
19%
Draw
7.13
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
11%
9.22
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
2%
65.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 0.91 for Kanchanaburi, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 3W 9D 7L from 19 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Kanchanaburi, meanwhile, have gone 2W 9D 8L across 19 games — 0.79 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 0.95 PPG, Kanchanaburi on 0.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 1W 6D 2L from their last 9 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kanchanaburi's away record stands at 0W 3D 6L across their last 9 away games, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kanchanaburi's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Kanchanaburi are on 1.00 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Kanchanaburi
Blended
Lamphun Warrior (Home) vs Kanchanaburi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Kanchanaburi
Blended
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi Form FAQs
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 3W 9D 7L in their last 19 games (0.95 PPG), while Kanchanaburi have gone 2W 9D 8L in their last 19 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Kanchanaburi away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.00 PPG; Kanchanaburi away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2025. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 9 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lamphun Warrior
1
Draws
1
Kanchanaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, Kanchanaburi have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 February 2026: Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Kanchanaburi.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi?
Kanchanaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Kanchanaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lamphun Warrior at 78%, Kanchanaburi at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Lamphun Warrior and 44% for Kanchanaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kanchanaburi in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Kanchanaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 56% of Kanchanaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 44% of Kanchanaburi's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 67% of Kanchanaburi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi finished level at 1-1 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 2.22 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.91 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.06 / defence 1.18 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.71 / defence 1.33, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 67% | Draw 19% | Kanchanaburi 14%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 63%, Kanchanaburi 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 0.95 PPG, Kanchanaburi 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.