Kanchanaburi 0-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kanchanaburi vs Ratchaburi encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Kanchanaburi welcome Ratchaburi to Kanchanaburi Province Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 30). Kick-off is Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Kanchanaburi have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Kanchanaburi have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Ratchaburi stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Ratchaburi have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Kanchanaburi's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Kanchanaburi, 0 for Ratchaburi and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Aug 2025, ended Kanchanaburi 1–1 Ratchaburi — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Kanchanaburi in-play and half-time data (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 70%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kanchanaburi 55% versus Ratchaburi 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kanchanaburi 48% | Ratchaburi 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kanchanaburi surrender their half-time lead 70% of the time, while Ratchaburi have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kanchanaburi 1.02 xG and Ratchaburi 2.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kanchanaburi attack 0.747 / defence 1.511 | Ratchaburi attack 1.481 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.027. Kanchanaburi's attack rating of 0.747 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack rating of 1.481, which lifts their away xG to 2.30. Kanchanaburi's defence rating of 1.511 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ratchaburi's projected output up. Data: built from Kanchanaburi's last 29 games and Ratchaburi's last 59.

Result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 14% | Draw 22% | Ratchaburi 64%. Fair-value odds: Kanchanaburi 7.35 | Draw 4.53 | Ratchaburi 1.55. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (64%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kanchanaburi's last 10 home games and Ratchaburi's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kanchanaburi 50% (last 10 home games) | Ratchaburi 80% (last 10 away games).

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