Chonburi FC 2-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chonburi FC face Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Nakhon Ratchasima FC travel to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to take on Chonburi FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Chonburi FC stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Chonburi FC have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 0D 9L (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Chonburi FC 1.50 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Chonburi FC, 2 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended Chonburi FC 0–0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 55% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 45% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.41 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.881 / defence 0.998 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.741 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.027. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Chonburi FC's last 29 games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 59.
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 50% | Draw 32% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.01 | Draw 3.08 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5.64. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chonburi FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 30 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 50% | Draw 32% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Chonburi FC 1.41 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.881 / def 0.998 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.741 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC FAQs
What time does Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Chonburi FC 2 - 1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 30) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 50% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 18% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (0.88) and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chonburi FC's last 29 games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
50%
2.01
32%
3.08
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.16
0.76
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
4%
22.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.2 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.76 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chonburi FC come into this having played 29 games, going 9W 9D 11L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Nakhon Ratchasima FC sit at 0.83 PPG from 29 outings (6W 6D 17L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chonburi FC's home form reads 5W 5D 4L across their last 14 home games, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have taken 0.57 points per game from their last 14 away games (2W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 0.66 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Current Season
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Current Season
Chonburi FC (Home) vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chonburi FC
Current Season
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Current Season
❓ Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Form FAQs
What form are Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 9W 9D 11L in their last 29 games (1.24 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 6W 6D 17L in their last 29 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.43 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Chonburi FC have won 2, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Chonburi FC 2-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chonburi FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 57%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Chonburi FC) and 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 43% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 71% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chonburi FC edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.41 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.76 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.00 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.74 / defence 1.06, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 50% | Draw 32% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 18%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 45%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.