Chonburi FC 0-0 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Muangthong United encounter.

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Full Analysis

IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium plays host to Chonburi FC versus Muangthong United in Thai League 1 (matchday 28). Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Chonburi FC have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, Chonburi FC have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Muangthong United's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Muangthong United have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form ledger tips toward Chonburi FC. A 0.50 PPG lead over Muangthong United (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Chonburi FC edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended Chonburi FC 3–2 Muangthong United — a Chonburi FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Chonburi FC — key trading statistics (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Muangthong United — key trading statistics (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 56% versus Muangthong United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 44% | Muangthong United 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.79 xG and Muangthong United 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.040 / defence 1.061 | Muangthong United attack 0.916 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.069. Data: built from Chonburi FC's last 27 games and Muangthong United's last 57.

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 53% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 20%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.89 | Draw 3.68 | Muangthong United 5.04. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Chonburi FC's last 10 home games and Muangthong United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chonburi FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Muangthong United 50% (last 10 away games).

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