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Poisson model rates Port FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sisaket United vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium plays host to Sisaket United versus Port FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 22 November 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form

Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Port FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Port FC have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sisaket United 1.22 xG and Port FC 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sisaket United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Port FC attack 1.183 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 0 Sisaket United games / 30 Port FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Sisaket United 31% | Draw 31% | Port FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Sisaket United 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Port FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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