Chiangrai United 1-2 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bangkok United (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chiangrai United face Bangkok United.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Chiangrai United welcome Bangkok United to Singha Chiangrai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chiangrai United — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 3W 2D 5L at Singha Chiangrai Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bangkok United stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Bangkok United's 2.10 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Chiangrai United's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bangkok United, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for Chiangrai United.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Bangkok United winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bangkok United have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Bangkok United in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 47% versus Bangkok United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 45% | Bangkok United 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.37 xG and Bangkok United 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.904 / defence 1.099 | Bangkok United attack 1.351 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.719 / away 1.116. Bangkok United have an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Chiangrai United games / 40 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 29% | Draw 29% | Bangkok United 42%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Bangkok United 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bangkok United at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bangkok United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chiangrai United 30% | Bangkok United 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Singha Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 29% | Draw 29% | Bangkok United 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Chiangrai United 1.37 / Bangkok United 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.904 / def 1.099 | Bangkok United attack 1.351 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.719 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Bangkok United xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United?
Chiangrai United 1 - 2 Bangkok United.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United part of?
Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 29% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Chiangrai United and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Bangkok United?
Record (6 meetings): Chiangrai United 0W | Draws 0 | Bangkok United 6W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Bangkok United in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Bangkok United (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 0.90x the league average against Bangkok United's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bangkok United's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
29%
3.41
29%
3.47
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
3.03
1.66
Bangkok United xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
6%
17.87
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.66 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Chiangrai United have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 10W 11D 17L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bangkok United's form line: 22W 12D 4L from 38 games, 2.05 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 0.97 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chiangrai United.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chiangrai United have posted 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (7W 6D 6L).
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 11W 5D 3L from 19 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chiangrai United are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.97 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Bangkok United in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 10W 11D 17L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 22W 12D 4L in their last 38 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Bangkok United away?
Bangkok United's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.42 PPG; Bangkok United away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Bangkok United won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Bangkok United specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Chiangrai United
1
Draws
8
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Bangkok United?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 1, Bangkok United have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 2-0 Bangkok United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 47%, Bangkok United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Chiangrai United) and 63% (Bangkok United).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Bangkok United in 42%; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Bangkok United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 53% of Bangkok United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 63% of Bangkok United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Bangkok United tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bangkok United in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bangkok United edge out Chiangrai United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bangkok United beat Chiangrai United 1-2 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.37 xG and Bangkok United 1.66 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Bangkok United attack 1.35 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 29% | Draw 29% | Bangkok United 42%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 45%, Bangkok United 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Bangkok United's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.