Ratchaburi 1-0 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Ratchaburi welcome Chiangrai United to Dragon Solar Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 4W 3D 3L at Dragon Solar Park — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Chiangrai United have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ratchaburi, 2 for Chiangrai United and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Chiangrai United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Chiangrai United trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 49% versus Chiangrai United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 51% | Chiangrai United 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.62 xG and Chiangrai United 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.262 / defence 0.980 | Chiangrai United attack 0.778 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.109. Ratchaburi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 2.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Chiangrai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Ratchaburi games / 37 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 74% | Draw 18% | Chiangrai United 8%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.35 | Draw 5.56 | Chiangrai United 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (74%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 60% | Chiangrai United 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 74% | Draw 18% | Chiangrai United 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 54% | xG Ratchaburi 2.62 / Chiangrai United 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.262 / def 0.980 | Chiangrai United attack 0.778 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.649 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (74%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Chiangrai United xG
54%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Ratchaburi 1 - 0 Chiangrai United.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 74% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 8% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United?
Record (6 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 3 | Chiangrai United 2W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 1.26x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
74%
1.35
18%
5.63
8%
11.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.47
0.85
Chiangrai United xG
1.35
74%
Home win
5.63
18%
Draw
11.96
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
7%
13.74
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
1%
164.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.85 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 14W 9D 14L from 37 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chiangrai United, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 16L across 37 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.38 PPG, Chiangrai United on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 9W 3D 6L from 18 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chiangrai United's away record stands at 3W 5D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.00 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 14W 9D 14L in their last 37 games (1.38 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 10W 11D 16L in their last 37 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Chiangrai United away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.67 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Chiangrai United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
4
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 3, Chiangrai United have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 56%, Chiangrai United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Ratchaburi and 56% for Chiangrai United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 50% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ratchaburi's matches and 56% of Chiangrai United's.
Do Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Chiangrai United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Chiangrai United 1-0 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 2.62 xG and Chiangrai United 0.85 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Chiangrai United landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.26 / defence 0.98 against Chiangrai United attack 0.78 / defence 1.26, drawn from 39/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 74% | Draw 18% | Chiangrai United 8%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 51%, Chiangrai United 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.38 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.