Port FC 1-1 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Port FC host Muangthong United at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Port FC — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Muangthong United have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Port FC at 2.10 PPG versus Muangthong United's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Port FC have won 3, Muangthong United 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2024, ended 4–3 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Port FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Muangthong United in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 68% and Muangthong United 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Port FC 68% | Muangthong United 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.80 xG and Muangthong United 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.189 / defence 0.842 | Muangthong United attack 0.890 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.719 / away 1.116. Data: 40 Port FC games / 38 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 58% | Draw 28% | Muangthong United 15%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.72 | Draw 3.57 | Muangthong United 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Port FC 50% | Muangthong United 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 58% | Draw 28% | Muangthong United 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Port FC 1.80 / Muangthong United 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.189 / def 0.842 | Muangthong United attack 0.890 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.719 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Port FC (58%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Muangthong United xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Muangthong United kick off?
Port FC vs Muangthong United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Port FC 1 - 1 Muangthong United.
Where is Port FC vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Muangthong United part of?
Port FC vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 58% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 15% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Port FC and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Muangthong United?
Record (6 meetings): Port FC 3W | Draws 1 | Muangthong United 2W.
What form are Port FC and Muangthong United in?
Port FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Muangthong United (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Port FC's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Muangthong United's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
58%
1.73
28%
3.62
15%
6.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.63
0.84
Muangthong United xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
6.83
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
2%
41.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.8 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Port FC and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Port FC and 0.84 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Port FC's recent record stands at 21W 11D 6L from 38 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Muangthong United, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 11L across 38 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port FC on 1.95 PPG, Muangthong United on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 12W 2D 4L from 18 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Muangthong United's away record stands at 6W 4D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Port FC are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.95 scored and 1.34 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Muangthong United in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 21W 11D 6L in their last 38 games (1.95 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 19W 8D 11L in their last 38 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Muangthong United away?
Port FC's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.11 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Port FC or Muangthong United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Muangthong United in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port FC and Muangthong United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Port FC's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Port FC
3
Draws
2
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Muangthong United?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 5, Muangthong United have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Muangthong United 0-0 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Muangthong United?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Port FC at 56%, Muangthong United at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Port FC and 72% for Muangthong United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Muangthong United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Port FC's games and 78% of Muangthong United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Port FC's matches and 72% of Muangthong United's.
Do Port FC and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC and Muangthong United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Port FC and Muangthong United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.80 xG and Muangthong United 0.84 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.84 against Muangthong United attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 40/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 58% | Draw 28% | Muangthong United 15%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 68%, Muangthong United 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Muangthong United's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.95 PPG, Muangthong United 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Muangthong United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.