Nong Bua Pitchaya 5-3 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 38%, yet in-form Ratchaburi provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ratchaburi make the trip to Pitchaya Stadium to face Nong Bua Pitchaya in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Friday 25 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 games at Pitchaya Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ratchaburi have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Ratchaburi arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, Ratchaburi have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Nong Bua Pitchaya's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 1–2 with Ratchaburi winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ratchaburi have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Nong Bua Pitchaya half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 70% versus Ratchaburi 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 80% | Ratchaburi 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.26 xG and Ratchaburi 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.969 / defence 1.368 | Ratchaburi attack 0.704 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.090. Ratchaburi's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 10 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 40 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 38% | Draw 33% | Ratchaburi 28%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Ratchaburi 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nong Bua Pitchaya at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ratchaburi (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 60% | Ratchaburi 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 38% | Draw 33% | Ratchaburi 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.26 / Ratchaburi 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.969 / def 1.368 | Ratchaburi attack 0.704 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Ratchaburi xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 5 - 3 Ratchaburi.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 38% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi?
Record (4 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W | Draws 1 | Ratchaburi 3W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack rating (0.97) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.70x) against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
38%
2.60
33%
3.00
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.31
1.05
Ratchaburi xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
8%
12.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.05 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nong Bua Pitchaya come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 3D 5L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ratchaburi sit at 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ratchaburi have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ratchaburi in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Ratchaburi away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.33 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Nong Bua Pitchaya or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 4-0 on 9 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Ratchaburi 4-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 67% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 0% (Ratchaburi) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 0% for Ratchaburi.
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 33%; Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 33% of games; Ratchaburi in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 0% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 0% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nong Bua Pitchaya cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Ratchaburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Ratchaburi 5-3 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.26 xG and Ratchaburi 1.05 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Nong Bua Pitchaya beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.97 / defence 1.37 against Ratchaburi attack 0.70 / defence 0.78, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 38% | Draw 33% | Ratchaburi 28%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 80%, Ratchaburi 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (10 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (10 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Nong Bua Pitchaya winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.