Sukhothai FC 0-1 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Sukhothai FC take on Buriram United.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sukhothai FC host Buriram United at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sukhothai FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC at Thung Talay Luang Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
Buriram United — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Buriram United — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Sukhothai FC have won 0, Buriram United 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2023, ended 0–3 with Buriram United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sukhothai FC trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Buriram United trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 47% versus Buriram United 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 41% | Buriram United 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 0.97 xG and Buriram United 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.844 / defence 0.903 | Buriram United attack 1.050 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.054. Data: 32 Sukhothai FC games / 32 Buriram United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 32% | Draw 35% | Buriram United 33%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Buriram United 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 40% | Buriram United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 32% | Draw 35% | Buriram United 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Sukhothai FC 0.97 / Buriram United 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.844 / def 0.903 | Buriram United attack 1.050 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Buriram United xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United?
Sukhothai FC 0 - 1 Buriram United.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 32% chance of winning, Buriram United a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Buriram United?
Record (2 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 0 | Buriram United 2W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Buriram United in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Buriram United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sukhothai FC's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.13
35%
2.88
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
1.97
1.00
Buriram United xG
3.13
32%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
12%
8.50
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.00 for Buriram United, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sukhothai FC's recent record stands at 9W 11D 12L from 32 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United, meanwhile, have gone 24W 6D 2L across 32 games — 2.44 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sukhothai FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sukhothai FC have managed 6W 5D 5L from 16 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Buriram United's away record stands at 11W 4D 1L across 16 trips, a 2.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.44 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Buriram United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 9W 11D 12L in their last 32 games (1.19 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 24W 6D 2L in their last 32 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.44 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.31 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Buriram United in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Buriram United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Buriram United go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2026, when Buriram United won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
8
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Buriram United?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 0, Buriram United have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Buriram United 6-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 31%, Buriram United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sukhothai FC) and 56% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Buriram United in 44%; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 56% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 56% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Buriram United tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Sukhothai FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Sukhothai FC 0-1 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 0.97 xG and Buriram United 1.00 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sukhothai FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against Buriram United attack 1.05 / defence 0.86, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 32% | Draw 35% | Buriram United 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Buriram United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 41%, Buriram United 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Buriram United's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.