Buriram United 1-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (69%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Buriram United face Lamphun Warrior.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chang Arena plays host to Buriram United versus Lamphun Warrior in Thai League 1 (matchday 30). Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Buriram United (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Buriram United's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Buriram United are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lamphun Warrior's record over their last 10 games: 1W 7D 2L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lamphun Warrior away from home: 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Buriram United. A 1.20 PPG lead over Lamphun Warrior (2.20 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Buriram United have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins, with Lamphun Warrior managing 0 and 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended Buriram United 3–2 Lamphun Warrior — a Buriram United win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Buriram United and goals — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 2.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Buriram United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 55%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 51% versus Lamphun Warrior 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 71% | Lamphun Warrior 46%). Note also that Lamphun Warrior surrender HT leads in 55% of cases while Buriram United recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 2.19 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.572 / defence 0.825 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.857 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.027. Buriram United carry an above-average attack rating of 1.572 — their 2.19 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Buriram United's last 59 games and Lamphun Warrior's last 59.
Result probabilities: Buriram United 69% | Draw 22% | Lamphun Warrior 9%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.44 | Draw 4.63 | Lamphun Warrior 10.93. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (69%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Buriram United's last 10 home games and Lamphun Warrior's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Buriram United 40% (last 10 home games) | Lamphun Warrior 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 30 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 69% | Draw 22% | Lamphun Warrior 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Buriram United 2.19 / Lamphun Warrior 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.572 / def 0.825 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.857 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Lamphun Warrior xG
48%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior FAQs
What time does Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Buriram United 1 - 1 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 30) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 69% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 9% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Buriram United's attack at 1.57x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.86x) against Buriram United's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from Buriram United's last 59 games and Lamphun Warrior's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 1-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
69%
1.44
22%
4.63
9%
10.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.92
0.73
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.44
69%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
10.93
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
11%
8.98
Win to Nil
34%
2.98
1%
98.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.73 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Buriram United come into this having played 59 games, going 44W 7D 8L for 2.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Lamphun Warrior sit at 1.10 PPG from 59 outings (13W 26D 20L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-D across their last five.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.26 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Buriram United's home form reads 24W 2D 3L across their last 29 home games, a 2.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamphun Warrior have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 29 away games (4W 12D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Buriram United are averaging 2.83 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.19 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Current Season
Lamphun Warrior
Current Season
Buriram United (Home) vs Lamphun Warrior (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Buriram United
Current Season
Lamphun Warrior
Current Season
❓ Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior Form FAQs
What form are Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 44W 7D 8L in their last 59 games (2.36 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 13W 26D 20L in their last 59 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Buriram United's home record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.55 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won Buriram United 3-0 Lamphun Warrior on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Buriram United have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Buriram United
2
Draws
0
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Buriram United have won 6, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Buriram United 1-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 38%, Lamphun Warrior 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Buriram United) and 41% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Buriram United's recent matches and 55% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Buriram United's recent games and 41% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Buriram United's recent matches and 62% of Lamphun Warrior's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior finished level at 1-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.19 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.73 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Buriram United fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.57 / defence 0.82 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 69% | Draw 22% | Lamphun Warrior 9%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 71%, Lamphun Warrior 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.