🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Buriram United at 83% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Kanchanaburi encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Kanchanaburi travel to Chang Arena to take on Buriram United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 December 2025, 11:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Buriram United's home record at Chang Arena: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Kanchanaburi have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Kanchanaburi have gone 0W 2D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game.

Buriram United are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 1.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

In-Play Profile

Buriram United in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

Kanchanaburi in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Buriram United 75% and Kanchanaburi 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 83% | Kanchanaburi 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 2.95 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.316 / defence 0.821 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.644 / defence 1.523. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.161. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — their λ of 2.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Kanchanaburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.523 — this is suppressing Buriram United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Buriram United games / 12 Kanchanaburi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Buriram United 83% | Draw 13% | Kanchanaburi 4%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.20 | Draw 7.69 | Kanchanaburi 25.00. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (83%) — a 79pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Buriram United 60% | Kanchanaburi 33%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights