Chonburi FC 1-1 Kanchanaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Kanchanaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Chonburi FC welcome Kanchanaburi to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 December 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's home record at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium: 1W 2D 3L from 6 Thai League 1 appearances (0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kanchanaburi — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kanchanaburi away from home this season: 0W 2D 5L from 7 away games — 0.29 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game.
Chonburi FC are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Chonburi FC trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kanchanaburi trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 69% and Kanchanaburi 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 54% | Kanchanaburi 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 2.13 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.959 / defence 1.115 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.663 / defence 1.474. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.220. Kanchanaburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.474 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Chonburi FC games / 13 Kanchanaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 64% | Draw 24% | Kanchanaburi 13%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.56 | Draw 4.17 | Kanchanaburi 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Chonburi FC 67% | Kanchanaburi 43%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Kanchanaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 Dec 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 64% | Draw 24% | Kanchanaburi 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG Chonburi FC 2.13 / Kanchanaburi 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.959 / def 1.115 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.663 / def 1.474 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Kanchanaburi xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Kanchanaburi kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Kanchanaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 12 December 2025 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Chonburi FC 1 - 1 Kanchanaburi.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Kanchanaburi being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Kanchanaburi part of?
Chonburi FC vs Kanchanaburi is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 64% chance of winning, Kanchanaburi a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chonburi FC and Kanchanaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Kanchanaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Kanchanaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chonburi FC and Kanchanaburi in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Kanchanaburi (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 0.96x the league average against Kanchanaburi's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 2.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kanchanaburi's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
64%
1.57
24%
4.25
13%
7.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
3.03
0.90
Kanchanaburi xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
7.76
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
12%
8.41
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
2%
65.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Kanchanaburi expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.90 for Kanchanaburi, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chonburi FC's recent record stands at 3W 4D 6L from 13 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kanchanaburi, meanwhile, have gone 1W 6D 6L across 13 games — 0.69 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Kanchanaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.00 PPG, Kanchanaburi on 0.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Chonburi FC have managed 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kanchanaburi's away record stands at 0W 1D 5L across 6 trips, a 0.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kanchanaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Kanchanaburi are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Kanchanaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Kanchanaburi in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Kanchanaburi have gone 1W 6D 6L in their last 13 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Kanchanaburi away?
Chonburi FC's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 0.83 PPG; Kanchanaburi away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
0
Kanchanaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Kanchanaburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 0, Kanchanaburi have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Kanchanaburi last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Kanchanaburi 2-2 Chonburi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Kanchanaburi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 67%, Kanchanaburi 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Chonburi FC and 33% for Kanchanaburi.
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Kanchanaburi in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Kanchanaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Kanchanaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 33% of Kanchanaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Kanchanaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 33% of Kanchanaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Chonburi FC and Kanchanaburi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Chonburi FC and Kanchanaburi drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 2.13 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.90 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Chonburi FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.11 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.66 / defence 1.47, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 64% | Draw 24% | Kanchanaburi 13%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 54%, Kanchanaburi 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.00 PPG, Kanchanaburi 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.