🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Kanchanaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Chonburi FC welcome Kanchanaburi to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 December 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chonburi FC's home record at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium: 1W 2D 3L from 6 Thai League 1 appearances (0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Kanchanaburi — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kanchanaburi away from home this season: 0W 2D 5L from 7 away games — 0.29 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game.

Chonburi FC are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

In-Play Data

Chonburi FC trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Kanchanaburi trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 69% and Kanchanaburi 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 54% | Kanchanaburi 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 2.13 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.959 / defence 1.115 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.663 / defence 1.474. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.220. Kanchanaburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.474 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Chonburi FC games / 13 Kanchanaburi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 64% | Draw 24% | Kanchanaburi 13%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.56 | Draw 4.17 | Kanchanaburi 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Chonburi FC 67% | Kanchanaburi 43%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights