Buriram United 2-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Buriram United at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Buriram United and Ratchaburi meet at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 November 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Buriram United (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's home record at Chang Arena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.50 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Buriram United have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ratchaburi in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Buriram United have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 8 meetings, with Ratchaburi managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 2–3 with Ratchaburi winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Buriram United and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Buriram United — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 54% versus Ratchaburi 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Buriram United 76% | Ratchaburi 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.73 xG and Ratchaburi 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.309 / defence 0.951 | Ratchaburi attack 1.340 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.186. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Buriram United games / 41 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 40% | Draw 29% | Ratchaburi 31%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Ratchaburi 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 60% | Ratchaburi 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 40% | Draw 29% | Ratchaburi 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 67% | xG Buriram United 1.73 / Ratchaburi 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.309 / def 0.951 | Ratchaburi attack 1.340 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Ratchaburi xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Buriram United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Buriram United 2 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Buriram United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Buriram United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 40% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Buriram United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Ratchaburi?
Record (8 meetings): Buriram United 5W | Draws 2 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Buriram United and Ratchaburi in?
Buriram United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Buriram United's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (1.34x) against Buriram United's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
40%
2.48
29%
3.50
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Buriram United xG
Total xG
3.24
1.51
Ratchaburi xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
9%
11.25
6%
18.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.51 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Buriram United's recent record stands at 31W 5D 5L from 41 games, a 2.39 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 10L across 41 games — 1.83 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ratchaburi heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Buriram United have managed 16W 2D 2L from 20 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 11W 3D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Buriram United are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 2.05 scored and 1.32 conceded. Ratchaburi's attacking output running into Buriram United's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 31W 5D 5L in their last 41 games (2.39 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 22W 9D 10L in their last 41 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Buriram United's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.50 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 6-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Buriram United have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Buriram United
3
Draws
1
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 6, Ratchaburi have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Ratchaburi 2-2 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Ratchaburi?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 40%, Ratchaburi 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Buriram United and 65% for Ratchaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Buriram United's recent matches and 65% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Buriram United's matches and 65% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Buriram United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ratchaburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Ratchaburi 2-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.73 xG and Ratchaburi 1.51 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ratchaburi landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.31 / defence 0.95 against Ratchaburi attack 1.34 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 40% | Draw 29% | Ratchaburi 31%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 76%, Ratchaburi 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.