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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Ayutthaya FC make the trip to Sam Ao Stadium to face Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 December 2025 at 12:30 UTC.

Current Form

Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium.

Ayutthaya FC (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ayutthaya FC away from home this season: 3W 1D 2L from 6 away games — 1.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.67 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Form favours the hosts. Prachuap's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Ayutthaya FC's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Trading & In-Play

Prachuap — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games).

Ayutthaya FC — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Prachuap 54% and Ayutthaya FC 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 31% | Ayutthaya FC 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.16 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.819 / defence 0.800 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.057 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.186. Data: 43 Prachuap games / 13 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Prachuap 36% | Draw 36% | Ayutthaya FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Ayutthaya FC 3.57. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 40% | Ayutthaya FC 67%.

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