Ratchaburi 1-0 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Sukhothai FC travel to Dragon Solar Park to take on Ratchaburi. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 December 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ratchaburi, 3 for Sukhothai FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Sukhothai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Sukhothai FC trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 55% versus Sukhothai FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 55% | Sukhothai FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.41 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.010 / defence 0.747 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.765 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.166. Ratchaburi's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Ratchaburi games / 42 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 52% | Draw 34% | Sukhothai FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.92 | Draw 2.94 | Sukhothai FC 7.14. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Sukhothai FC lead the H2H ledger, but Ratchaburi carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 50% | Sukhothai FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Friday 5 Dec 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 52% | Draw 34% | Sukhothai FC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Ratchaburi 1.41 / Sukhothai FC 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.010 / def 0.747 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.765 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Sukhothai FC xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 5 December 2025 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Ratchaburi 1 - 0 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 52% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 14% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC?
Record (6 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 2 | Sukhothai FC 3W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ratchaburi's attack rating (1.01) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
52%
1.93
34%
2.96
14%
6.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.08
0.67
Sukhothai FC xG
1.93
52%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
6.92
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
4%
28.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 11.8 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.67 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 22W 9D 11L from 42 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sukhothai FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 15D 15L across 42 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sukhothai FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 11W 6D 3L from 20 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sukhothai FC's away record stands at 1W 10D 9L across 20 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.38 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 22W 9D 11L in their last 42 games (1.79 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 12W 15D 15L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.95 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
3
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 3, Sukhothai FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-2 Ratchaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 50%, Sukhothai FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ratchaburi) and 40% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Sukhothai FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ratchaburi's games and 60% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 40% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Sukhothai FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Sukhothai FC 1-0 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.41 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.67 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.01 / defence 0.75 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.77 / defence 0.95, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 52% | Draw 34% | Sukhothai FC 14%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 55%, Sukhothai FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.