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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Sukhothai FC travel to Dragon Solar Park to take on Ratchaburi. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 December 2025, 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Sukhothai FC — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sukhothai FC away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ratchaburi, 3 for Sukhothai FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Sukhothai FC winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Ratchaburi trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Sukhothai FC trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 55% versus Sukhothai FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 55% | Sukhothai FC 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.41 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.010 / defence 0.747 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.765 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.166. Ratchaburi's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Ratchaburi games / 42 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 52% | Draw 34% | Sukhothai FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.92 | Draw 2.94 | Sukhothai FC 7.14. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Sukhothai FC lead the H2H ledger, but Ratchaburi carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 50% | Sukhothai FC 60%.

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