BG Pathum United 2-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BG Pathum United at 76% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BG Stadium plays host to BG Pathum United versus Sukhothai FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 11:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
BG Pathum United have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
BG Pathum United's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sukhothai FC (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. BG Pathum United's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Sukhothai FC's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for BG Pathum United, 3 for Sukhothai FC and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended BG Pathum United 1–3 Sukhothai FC — a Sukhothai FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
BG Pathum United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 55% versus Sukhothai FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 49% | Sukhothai FC 51%). Note also that Sukhothai FC surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while BG Pathum United recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 2.47 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 1.111 / defence 0.975 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.610 / defence 1.460. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.153. Sukhothai FC's defence rating of 1.460 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing BG Pathum United's projected output up. Sukhothai FC's attack rating of 0.610 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.69. Data: built from BG Pathum United's last 51 games and Sukhothai FC's last 51.
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 76% | Draw 17% | Sukhothai FC 7%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 1.32 | Draw 5.87 | Sukhothai FC 13.59. The model has a clear lean to BG Pathum United (76%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BG Pathum United as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (BG Pathum United's last 10 home games and Sukhothai FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: BG Pathum United 50% (last 10 home games) | Sukhothai FC 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 23 | Venue: BG Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 76% | Draw 17% | Sukhothai FC 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG BG Pathum United 2.47 / Sukhothai FC 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 1.111 / def 0.975 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.610 / def 1.460 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Sukhothai FC xG
46%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai FC FAQs
What time does BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at BG Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai FC?
BG Pathum United 2 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at BG Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai FC part of?
BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 23) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 76% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 7% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both BG Pathum United and Sukhothai FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates BG Pathum United's attack at 1.11x the league average against Sukhothai FC's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 2.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.61x) against BG Pathum United's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from BG Pathum United's last 51 games and Sukhothai FC's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
76%
1.32
17%
5.87
7%
13.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
3.16
0.69
Sukhothai FC xG
1.32
76%
Home win
5.87
17%
Draw
13.59
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
8%
11.85
Win to Nil
38%
2.63
1%
160.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.7 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 0.69 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, BG Pathum United have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 25W 14D 12L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Sukhothai FC's form line: 13W 18D 20L from 51 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L.
Put side by side, BG Pathum United are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sukhothai FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, BG Pathum United have posted 2.17 PPG from their last 24 home games (16W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — BG Pathum United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 10D 13L from their last 24 away games — 0.54 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.22 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
BG Pathum United (Home) vs Sukhothai FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
BG Pathum United
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai FC Form FAQs
What form are BG Pathum United and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 25W 14D 12L in their last 51 games (1.75 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 13W 18D 20L in their last 51 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Sukhothai FC away?
BG Pathum United's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 2.17 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.54 PPG.
Have BG Pathum United or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between BG Pathum United and Sukhothai FC, the earliest from November 2022. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BG Pathum United won BG Pathum United 7-1 Sukhothai FC on 9 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BG Pathum United have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
BG Pathum United
1
Draws
3
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Sukhothai FC?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, BG Pathum United have won 4, Sukhothai FC have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: BG Pathum United 2-1 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Sukhothai FC?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 46%, Sukhothai FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (BG Pathum United) and 46% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Sukhothai FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in BG Pathum United and Sukhothai FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 50% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are BG Pathum United and Sukhothai FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of BG Pathum United's recent games and 46% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BG Pathum United and Sukhothai FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 75% of Sukhothai FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BG Pathum United edge out Sukhothai FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Sukhothai FC 2-1 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 2.47 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.69 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.61 / defence 1.46, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 76% | Draw 17% | Sukhothai FC 7%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 49%, Sukhothai FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.