Vasteras SK FK 3-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 14 as Vasteras SK FK welcome Landskrona BoIS to Iver Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 1L across 7 games at Iver Arena this term (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's away record: 2W 2D 1L from 5 road trips in Superettan this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Landskrona BoIS's 2.30 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Vasteras SK FK's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 46% versus Landskrona BoIS 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 46% | Landskrona BoIS 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 0.88 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.751 / defence 1.345 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.127 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.058. Vasteras SK FK's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Vasteras SK FK games / 13 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 21% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 54%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | Landskrona BoIS 1.85. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Vasteras SK FK 43% | Landskrona BoIS 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 21% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Vasteras SK FK 0.88 / Landskrona BoIS 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.751 / def 1.345 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.127 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Landskrona BoIS xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Vasteras SK FK 3 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 21% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 54% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vasteras SK FK's attack rating (0.75) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-2 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
21%
4.84
25%
4.00
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.49
1.60
Landskrona BoIS xG
4.84
21%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
4%
24.09
23%
4.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 13.4 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.60 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 5D 5L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 2.15 PPG from 13 outings (8W 4D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.07 PPG clear of Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 1W 3D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 1.60 points per game from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.85 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 3W 5D 5L in their last 13 games (1.08 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 8W 4D 1L in their last 13 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Landskrona BoIS's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.20 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Vasteras SK FK have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when Vasteras SK FK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS?
From 8 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 5, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when Landskrona BoIS 1-2 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 40%, Landskrona BoIS 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Vasteras SK FK and 60% for Landskrona BoIS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 80% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 60% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasteras SK FK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Landskrona BoIS 3-1 at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 0.88 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.60 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.75 / defence 1.34 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.13 / defence 1.09, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 21% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 54%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Vasteras SK FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 46%, Landskrona BoIS 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Vasteras SK FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.