Falkenbergs FF 1-1 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Norrby IF at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Falkenbergs FF vs Norrby IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 14 as Falkenbergs FF welcome Norrby IF to Falcon Alkoholfri Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Falkenbergs FF stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Falkenbergs FF are significantly better at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena than their overall form suggests.
Norrby IF — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF away from home this season: 4W 1D 2L from 7 away games — 1.86 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Norrby IF are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Falkenbergs FF in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Norrby IF in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Falkenbergs FF 54% versus Norrby IF 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Falkenbergs FF 69% | Norrby IF 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 0.91 xG and Norrby IF 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.942 / defence 1.666 | Norrby IF attack 1.010 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.058. Data: 13 Falkenbergs FF games / 13 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 19% | Draw 23% | Norrby IF 58%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Norrby IF 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Norrby IF (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Norrby IF as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Falkenbergs FF 70% | Norrby IF 29%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 19% | Draw 23% | Norrby IF 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Falkenbergs FF 0.91 / Norrby IF 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.942 / def 1.666 | Norrby IF attack 1.010 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Norrby IF xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs Norrby IF kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs Norrby IF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs Norrby IF?
Falkenbergs FF 1 - 1 Norrby IF.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs Norrby IF part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 19% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Norrby IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Norrby IF in?
Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Norrby IF (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Falkenbergs FF's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Norrby IF's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Norrby IF's attack versus Falkenbergs FF's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
19%
5.29
23%
4.33
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
2.69
1.78
Norrby IF xG
5.29
19%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
17%
5.93
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
3%
31.36
23%
4.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 12.1 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.78 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs Norrby IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Falkenbergs FF come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 1D 9L for 0.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Norrby IF sit at 2.00 PPG from 13 outings (8W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norrby IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.23 PPG clear of Falkenbergs FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Falkenbergs FF's home form reads 2W 0D 4L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Norrby IF have taken 2.17 points per game from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norrby IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Falkenbergs FF are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.54 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Norrby IF in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
Norrby IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
Falkenbergs FF have gone 3W 1D 9L in their last 13 games (0.77 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 8W 2D 3L in their last 13 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Falkenbergs FF at home or Norrby IF away?
Norrby IF's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Falkenbergs FF at home: 1.00 PPG; Norrby IF away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Falkenbergs FF or Norrby IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Falkenbergs FF have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Norrby IF in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Falkenbergs FF and Norrby IF runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Falkenbergs FF
2
Draws
1
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Norrby IF?
From 3 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 0, Norrby IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Norrby IF 2-2 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between Falkenbergs FF and Norrby IF?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Norrby IF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Falkenbergs FF 50% BTTS, Norrby IF 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Falkenbergs FF) and 33% (Norrby IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Norrby IF in 67%; Falkenbergs FF have failed to score in 50% of games; Norrby IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Falkenbergs FF play Norrby IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Falkenbergs FF's recent matches and 17% of Norrby IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Falkenbergs FF vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Falkenbergs FF's matches and 33% of Norrby IF's.
Do Falkenbergs FF and Norrby IF tend to score early?
Falkenbergs FF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Falkenbergs FF and Norrby IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Falkenbergs FF and Norrby IF finished level at 1-1 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 0.91 xG and Norrby IF 1.78 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 0.94 / defence 1.67 against Norrby IF attack 1.01 / defence 0.90, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 19% | Draw 23% | Norrby IF 58%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 69%, Norrby IF 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Norrby IF's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.